The Ogaden Question (OQ) has been a constant and powerful dynamic in the complex historical processes that convulsed Abyssinia and its successor, Ethiopia. It has occupied this sensitive and inherently radioactive space in the turbulent geopolitical equation in the Horn of Africa for six centuries, with remarkable persistence and tenacity. It has informed and underpinned the nature and evolution of the Abyssinian/Ethiopian state, profoundly shaped the character and political culture of its architects and ruling class, and heavily influenced its external relations.

 The Somali region in Ethiopia has been a heavily consequential factor in the epic struggles that convulsed the long history of the Horn Africa and profoundly influenced its convoluted and turbulent evolutionary trajectory since the 15^th century. It had played a pivotal role in the colossal confrontations between the formidable Adal State – anchored in the two ancient cities of Harar (Now in Ethiopia) and Zeila (now Somaliland/Somalia), the former as its Capital – and its principal and ambitious rival in the neighborhood, imperial Abyssinia.  The unimaginable horror and savagery spawned by this tragic encounter were chronicled in great and graphic details in The Conquests of Abyssinia by Sihab ad-Din Ahmad bin ‘Abd al-Qader.

It had prominently featured in the making and mixing fortunes of modern Abyssinia/Ethiopia under Menelik II, as a persistent and enduring symbol of independence, resisting pacification and domination. This region had been a key element that informed and underpinned the rise of the great Dervish Movement that fiercely opposed the colonial scramble for the Somali Peninsula in the early 20^th century, under the charismatic leadership of Sayid Mohamed Abdulle Hassan.

During the past 88 years, different rulers occupied the Ethiopian throne, with immensely variegated backgrounds, times, durations, contexts, attributes, ideologies, traditions, ethos, and fortunes: dubious hereditary monarch (Haile Selassie), revolutionary/Marxist zealot (Mengistu Haile Mariam), Ethnic chauvinist and megalomaniac tyrant masked as democrat (Meles Zenawi), and political outlier and/or straw man in the service of supremacist clique (Hailemariam Desalegn). They were different, even poles apart, in every respect imaginable. However, as products of and believers in the Abyssinian/Ethiopian hegemonic political culture, they all had one thing in common: In their perception and strategic calculus, they all saw the Ogaden Question as an existential threat to the Ethiopian State. This paranoid mindset has in turn led each and every Ethiopian leader to adopt only one strategy to deal with the Somali Question: precipitous and reckless use of military might, combined with medieval and opportunistic deployment of divide-and-rule measures. This has become the default option of Ethiopian leaders.

The 1935 invasion and occupation of Ethiopia by fascist Italy was partly provoked by the infamous Walwal Incident. The region was also an important dynamic in the liberation of Ethiopia and the restoration of Emperor Haile Selassie’s reign. During the 15 years between 1945 and 1959, Ethiopia, under Emperor Haile Selassie, had been weighed down and haunted by a raft of critical and rapidly changing regional and global developments centered around this region, including: a) the initiative by the then British Foreign Secretary, Ernest Bevin, to unite all Somali territories, b) transfer of huge swathes of this region to Ethiopian by the British in 1948 and 1954 secretly and under dubious circumstance, as well as the immediate, massive and furious reaction by Somalis, c) prospects of independence for the British protectorate of Somaliland and Italian colony in Southern Somalia, and d) the likely unification of the two territories. In addition, Ethiopia had faced myriad organized and diverse home-grown resistance movements across the region from the 1950s.

Between 1960 and 1977 Ethiopian went into three wars with Somalia, wars triggered and driven by perennial questions rooted in the Ogaden Question. The last war was the biggest and most destructive one, involving a wide range of regional and international actors, the two global super powers and their respective strategic alliances among them. In fact, the 1977-78 war had precipitously metamorphosed into a major threat to global security, prompting the US national security advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski, to frame it in the ominous phrase ‘SALT lies buried in the sands of the Ogaden.’

Those wars had exhausted, bankrupted and eventually led to simultaneous collapse of Ethiopia, under Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam, and Somalia, under General Mohamed Siyad Barre in 1991.  Ethiopia fell under the control of the EPLF and TPLF, both of which were heavily supported by Mogadishu. In fact, the leaders of the two fronts, Isaias Afwerki and the late Meles Zenawi, were both based in Mogadishu and travelled on Somali passports. Somalia has imploded and became the proverbial failed state.

The post-1991 period has been heavy with great opportunities and realistic prospects to crack this perennial question. Tragically that was not to be. The conflict erupted once again in 1994, with a level of ferocity and lethality not seen in decades. The biggest irony was that the Somali state, blamed and maligned ad infinitum as the one and only monster that created and fed the conflict in the region, was no more this time around. In fact, the TPLF-dominated Ethiopian army seized and occupied the Capital, Mogadishu, in late 2006 and has since turned Somalia into myriad mini-vassal states under its complete and ruthless control. Yet, the Somali region’s struggle not only survived but has acquired unprecedented levels of prominence, recognition and solidarity both internally and externally. By 2007, the late Prime Minister Zenawi had unleashed the might and fury of Ethiopian Defense Forces led by his TPLF comrade and Chief of Staff, Samora Yunis, on the region, committing unimaginable atrocities and collective punishment that have been included, not lightly, in the category of egregious offenses known as war crimes and crimes against humanity and at times even genocide.

Dr. Abiy Ahmed was sworn in as the Prime Minister of Ethiopia on 2 April 2018. His arrival has unleashed a set of radical and broad-based reforms in a country not known for and spectacularly lacking in the foundational traditions and critical capabilities required to embark on and skillfully manage such monumental transformation. In just nine months, the Abiy phenomenon has convulsed the political land scape in Ethiopia, turned the geopolitical calculus of the Horn of Africa topsy-turvy, and re-set broader international relations.

Could PM Ahmed become the first Ethiopian leader to crack the perennial Ogaden Question? It is too early to even attempt a definitive answer to this question. However, there are myriad enabling factors that work in his favor should he decide to make optimum use of them. In fact, PM Ahmed himself is a key factor in the positive developments currently underway in Ethiopia. He is the first non-Habesha (Amhara and Tigrai) leader in Ethiopia. More importantly, PM Ahmed hails from the large Oromo nation which, like their fellow Cushitic Somalis, has been at the receiving end of centuries of brutal Abyssinian aggression and domination. Second, his family and religious background provides him with unique, out-of-the-box perspectives that are free from the hegemonic traditions, dangerous predispositions, and ruinous legacies of the Abyssinian/Ethiopian state. Third, the package of reforms PM Ahmed has initiated have already created conditions that are heavy with promise and great opportunities for just and durable peace in the Somali region.

PM Ahmed is therefore well-placed to crack the perennial Ogaden Question that all his predecessors spectacularly failed to get it right. The following points could be valuable inputs into PM Abiy Ahmed’s strategy to diffuse the manufactured crisis unfolding in the Somali Regional State (SRS), and craft a credible path forward:

Break the medieval mindset that sees Somalis as an existential threat to the Ethiopian State: This mindset and the corrosive political culture and toxic narratives that define and underpin it have not worked for all previous leaders. It is based on medieval forms of fear and prejudice and it has led to ruinous legacies of war, poverty and tyranny. It is utter madness to even contemplate its continuation. And if anyone could broker a complete and clean break from this lethal affliction, it is PM Ahmed. And the time is now.

Give full and unequivocal support to the infant Somali Regional State administration led by President Mustafa Omar: I personally know Mustafa Omar. We both worked for the UN in Nairobi Kenya before I was transferred to a new duty station in Hamburg, Germany. I believe that PM Ahmed would find in Mustafa an enthusiastic, courageous and energetic partner who could help him fast rack and consolidate the reform and transformation agenda underway in Ethiopia. It seems that there are sinister forces hell bent on undermining the fragile peace and stability in the SRS. When Mustafa was appointed six months ago, the SRS was in the throes of complete chaos and possible implosion. Today it is considered arguably as the most peaceful Regional State in Ethiopia as the Prime Minister himself reportedly acknowledged a few days ago. Allowing anti-reform forces to disrupt the hard-won peace in the SRS would be tragic and unforgivable. PM Ahmed must send a clear and unmistakable message in support of President Mustafa and his team.

Avoid return to TPLF Model of governance in the SRS: The people of the SRS have always been at the receiving end of unimaginable levels of injustice and tyranny perpetrated by the Ethiopian State. However, the TPLF has elevated the persecution of Somalis to mass incarceration and killing fields bordering on genocide. A two-decade long reign of state terror had been unleashed on the civilian population. I recently read a report by an Oromo intellectual indicating that 5000 young Oromos lost their lives during the mass uprising in the Oromia Region that erupted in 2015. The TPLF let loose the mighty TPLF-led Ethiopian Defense Forces across the Ogaden for 23 years. Tens of thousands have perished. Hundreds of thousands were subjected to rape as a weapon of war. Entire towns and villages were burned, displacing millions. Thousands were rounded up and subjected to brutal mass incarceration. The Somalis were the only ethnic group in Ethiopia for whom specific torture chambers were designed, including the notorious Jeel Ogaadeen, according to elaborate and well-documented reports by human rights organizations. The entire Somali Region is a vast crime scene.One of the murderous tactics used by the TPLF was to mobilize predatory opportunists and unscrupulous political hacks to plant toxic seeds of discord among Somalis, with a view to dividing them into dubious clan-based groupings and pitting one against another. This sinister and criminal project reached its ugly summit during the reign of Abdi Iley and his TPLF enablers and puppeteers. A return to this dark era is not an option. It is unacceptable that some EPRDF operatives and senior ministers in PM Ahmed’s cabinet openly float the prospect of bringing back known criminals into positions of power and influence in the SRS.

Work closely with ONLF: The ONLF is without a doubt the only entity that fought the TPLF regime since 1994 and paid the heaviest price in blood and treasure. Following the reforms initiated by PM Ahmed, the ONLF signed a peace agreement with Ethiopia and returned home. ONLF has over the decades established vast grassroots organizations across the Ogaden and in the diaspora. Since their return, ONLF has observed the terms of its agreement with the Ethiopian Government and worked closely with the SRS in the service of peace and reconciliation. A close cooperation with ONLF would greatly facilitate the consolidation of the fragile peace in the region, underpinning PM Ahmed’s reform agenda.

The history of modern Ethiopia and the broader geopolitical equation in the Horn of Africa are saddled with the ruinous legacies, ugly demons, missed opportunities, corrosive anxieties, unpredictable consequences, tragic miscalculations, colossal and costly failures, and predatory and sinister schemes spawned by or associated with the perennial Ogaden conundrum. Variations of these are evident in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia.

The Ogaden Question has arguably been Ethiopia’s biggest challenge and has proved a tough nut to crack. From Menelik to Meles, every Ethiopian leader found a lethal obsession and a messy quagmire in the vast plains of the Ogaden. None could get it right. Herein lies an historic opportunity for PM Ahmed and his government to find a just and durable solution for the perennial Ogaden Question. If successful PM Ahmed would forever be remembered for ridding Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa of centuries old affliction and the myriad ruinous legacies it has routinely spawned for decades