Ethiopia: Is the Empire Collapsing?

 By Hassan Keynan

9 September 2020 marks a critical milestone in modern Ethiopian politics. For months Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has used and manipulated both chambers of the Parliament, the judiciary, and the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) to warn Tigray against going ahead with its planned elections. Addis Ababa insisted that any elections held in Tigray would be illegal and unconstitutional, and therefore null and void. The Federal Government even made it clear that it would not hesitate to blockade Tigray and impose severe punitive measures on it.  

However, on the morning of 9 September 2020 Tigray finally called PM Abiy Ahmed’s bluff, keeping the promise to hold elections in defiance of the threats and ultimatums emanating from the executive and legislative branches of Federal Government. Reports from Tigray indicate the polls for the 190-seat regional parliament were held in an environment that was peaceful, orderly, and relatively COVID-19-safe. Close to 90 percent of the nearly 3 million registered voters cast their ballots in 2600 polling stations. Unable to stop the elections in Tigray, PM Abiy Ahmed’s administration resorted to desperate measures aimed at preventing journalists and observers from traveling to Tigray for the purpose of reporting on the elections or monitoring them. The final results are expected on 13 September at the latest.

Tigray’s well-organized and successful elections mean a great deal more than a mere electoral event. At the heart of the matter is a constitutional crisis that engulfed the country when the incumbent administration indefinitely postponed the federal elections scheduled in August this year, citing reasons related to COVID-19. The unilateral fashion and the speed with which the Prime Minister and his Prosperity Party (PP) framed and managed the case for postponing elections raised legitimate concerns that the tyrannical instincts and the authoritarian demons that have convulsed the Ethiopian state since its inception might be rearing their ugly heads. What particularly irked most people and alienated many was Abiy Ahmed’s creepy flirtation with openly and unashamedly anti-federalist forces hell-bent on rolling back and ultimately getting rid of the ideas, principles, and institutions of federalism that inform and underpin the current constitution. There was widespread fear that Prime Minister Ahmed and his Prosperity Party (PP) were using and exploiting the COVID-19 pandemic to stay in power beyond their constitutionally mandated five-year term limit.  

Although this was a corrosive anxiety that has swept across the country, not all the constituent regions and autonomous city administrations of the federation were able or willing to openly confront the PP juggernaut led by its mercurial Nobel Peace Laureate. The bulk of the burden appears to have fallen, not unexpectedly, on the shoulders of the two core regions of the Ethiopia. 

Oromia on fire

When he saw that the opposition to PP’s unconstitutional grab for power was gaining strength and momentum, the Prime Minister decided to wage a war on the most formidable opponents in Oromia, the undisputed heavy weight in the country in terms of territory, demography, politics, and economy.  He struck first and hardest those closest to him. Following the assassination of Haacaalu Hundeessaa, a popular Oromo artist, activist, and icon, by unknown assailants in Addis Ababa on 29 June 2020, the Prime Minister rounded up all senior Oromo opposition politicians, threw them in jail, or put them under house arrest. Leaders and supporters of the two leading opposition parties, Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), have been particularly targeted. These included Jawar Mohamed who is credited to have spearheaded the popular uprising that toppled the previous regime and brought Abiy Ahmed to power, and Lemma Megersa, former President of Oromia and former defense minister. Abiy Ahmed followed up on this with a savage counter insurgency campaign across large swathes of Oromia in an effort to wipe out all signs of opposition to his rule in Oromia. This campaign of terror was conducted in a shroud of secrecy coupled with a complete shutdown of the internet and private media outlets. Abiy’s Rose Terror in Oromia was modelled on the Crimson Terror that was experimented and perfected in the Ogaden, particularly during the ten years between 2007 and 2017.  Although Abiy Ahmed’s administration has set Oromia on fire, the reckless and indiscriminate violence has so far failed to root out opposition in Oromia. In fact, it appears to have backfired as the youth-led popular uprising and economic boycott campaigns continue unabated across much of Oromia, with far-reaching consequences for the political and economic stability of the country.

Tigray on the path to separation

However, it is in Tigray that Abiy Ahmed has found his strongest, most determined, and most vocal opposition. There are many reasons for this. First, Tigray is the birth place and most enduring stronghold of the historical Abyssinian state, the entity that had informed the creation and evolutionary trajectory of modern Ethiopia. Second, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) had spearheaded the armed rebellion that toppled the military junta led by Mengistu Hailemariam in 1991 and dominated politics in Ethiopia the following 27 years. Third, Abiy Ahmed has joined forces with Tigray’s historical political rival and arch foe, the Amhara, to discredit the achievements and legacy of the TPLF-dominated EPRDF government, including the formulation and adoption of the current Constitution and ethnic-based federalism. Fourth, Tigray has the capability and the motivation to directly and effectively challenge Addis Ababa on multiple fronts, including a military option should it come to that. Tigray’s geographical location and the wealth of experiences and assets it has accumulated over the past 27 years constitute additional advantages that are not available to other region. Abiy Ahmed’s reluctance to use military and other extreme punitive measures to stop Tigray from holding elections has little to do with enlightened leadership, devotion to lofty ideals, or profound belief in God or country on the part of the Prime Minister. It has a lot to do with a deep concern, even fear, about the outcome of any form of hostile intervention in Tigray. Fear of a protracted and costly conflict with Tigray and fear resulting from the humiliation of losing power weighs heavily on the mind of the Prime Minister.

The Center can no longer hold

With Oromia on fire and Tigray almost divorced from the center and on the path to separation, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed faces a situation that no any other Ethiopia leader had faced. Will the political fiction imagined by Menelik 129 years ago remain united and stable? Can Ethiopia continue to exist without its foundational and ancestral dominion and its demographic and economic stronghold in constant turmoil? These are the questions that torment the self-anointed 7th King of Ethiopia. 

The 2019 Nobel Peace Laureate sits alone, isolated, and unhinged in the Imperial Place in Addis Ababa built by and named after his role model, Menelik, which he renovated at a cost of $170 million with the help of Indian experts flown from Gujrat and Punjab. Consumed by the anxiety and fear of presiding over the end of the of the Ethiopian empire, Abiy Ahmed spends his days routinely thumping the panic button. And the dominion over which he rules remains a dominion with no center nor savior.

Hassan Keynan is a former Professor and a senior retired UN official who worked in Africa, Asia and Europe

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Alfred Nobel Howls from the Grave: “Revoke Abiy Ahmed’s Nobel Peace Prize!”

Norwegian Nobel Committee. PHOTO: Nobel Media/Ken Opprann
By Hassan Keynan

The complex and immensely talented Swede, Alfred Nobel, was methodical in the manner he went about doing his business both when he was alive and after his death on 10 December 1896. He left little to chance or speculation.

However, the meticulous inventor and investor was unusually quiet about one specific issue: why he hand-picked a Norwegian Committee and bestowed upon it the privilege of awarding only the Nobel Peace Prize. Even the Norwegian Nobel Committee (NNC) itself expresses astonishment regarding the reason Nobel ‘left no explanation as to why the prize for peace was to be awarded by a Norwegian committee while the other four prizes were to be handled by Swedish committees.” 

Whatever reasons that led Nobel to pick a Norwegian Committee to be the arbiter of global peace, he would probably never have even contemplated the likes of Aung San Suu Kyi joining the exclusive Nobel Peace Laureates League in 1991. A Nobel Peace Laureate who stands accused of being complicit in the most egregious crime in human history, genocide, would be anathema to Nobel. He must have turned and protested in his grave at least twice recently.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee’s pick for the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize was also a controversial choice. Abiy Ahmed Ali is on course to be an embarrassment to the Nobel Peace awarding Committee and a huge disappointment to the global peace movement. Just months after receiving the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo, Prime Minister Ahmed signed a pact with the demons that have violently convulsed Ethiopia for decades and ruined the legacy of his predecessors: illusions of power and grandeur, the bane of Ethiopia’s political class.

In addition to being the youngest and most inexperienced leader in Ethiopian history, PM Ahmed seems to be profoundly insecure and delusion-prone. These dangerous dispositions can easily lead to gross miscalculations and catastrophic errors of judgement. Such a character is not only a threat to his country as is evident in the tragic events currently unfolding in the Oromia Region. He is also a menace to the peace and stability of neighboring countries and even the entire Horn of Africa region.  In December 2018 the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia and Head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia, Mr. Nicholas Haysom, expressed concern and questioned the legality of Ethiopian troops’ illegal and violent intervention in Southern Somalia. Seven months later, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ethiopian Defense Forces dispatched planes carrying special operations commando units from the Eastern Command based in Harar to the coastal city of Kismayo to overthrow the Jubaland State Government with a view to rigging the planned elections there. And shortly after he was declared the winner of the 2019 Nobel Peace, the Ethiopian Prime Minister was accused by the UN of destabilizing the fragile states of Somalia and South Sudan. The 2019 Nobel Peace Laureate is not a man of peace.

No one expects the gray minds and majestic contemplations of the lords of global peace to be flawless and perfect. That is asking too much. However, members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee and the Norwegian Parliament which appointments them must devise a mechanism to recall a Nobel Peace Prize when it is awarded wrongly to the wrong individual. Unfortunately, members of the NNC seem unable or unwilling to reconsider or rethink their verdict once they delivered it. The current Chair of the NNC, Berit Reiss-Andersen, ruled out any scenario in which the prize could be revoked. “We don’t do it. It’s not our task to oversee or censor what a laureate does after the prize has been won,” she said. “The prizewinners themselves have to safeguard their own reputations.” She made this remarks in the context of a global petition to strip Aung San Suu Kyi of the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize. She most probably holds the same view about and expects the same from the 2019 Nobel Peace Laureate.

To err is human. Many, including myself, initially fell for Abiy Ahmed’s fairy tale story beneath which lurked a Janus-faced tyrant. However, to insist on not rectifying a mistake or a tragic error of judgement, especially one that turns out to be heavily consequential, is NOT. Members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee can muse leisurely in their iconic and hermetically sealed enclave not far from the North Pole. But the millions whose lives and hopes have been recklessly ruined by tyrants crowned as Nobel Peace Laureates must continue fighting for justice even if it is delayed.

Struggles for justice and human dignity may be hard and long. And the temptation to give up or give in quite strong, often irresistible. But occasionally they bear fruit in the most mysterious ways imaginable. Imagine the ghost of Alfred Nobel visiting members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee in a dream on 10 December 2020 and revealing to them an amendment to his Will secretly locked in the basement of a law firm in San Remo, Italy. Imagine the dream coming true, and after protracted, ferocious and costly legal battles confirmation that the amendment was authentic. And in it, Alfred Nobel spells out protocols for revoking Nobel Prizes awarded to individuals who do not qualify and do not deserve.

It could happen. Believe me. Miracles could happen in the land of midnight sun.

keynanhassan@yahoo.com
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WAR CRIMES IN THE OGADEN MIGHT JINX THE 2019 NOBEL PEACE PRIZE*

1991 Nobel Peace Laureate

By Hassan Keynan


Does the name Aung San Suu Kyi ring any bells? The cool and charismatic dissident in Myanmar was awarded the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize “for her non-violent struggle for democracy and human rights.” The clean and saintly image is no more. Aung San Suu Kyi currently cuts the lonely and miserable figure of a global pariah, as she stands accused of being complicit in and even excusing the most egregious crime in human history. It was her duplicitous and shameful stance vis-à-vis the brutal repression and, according to the UN, “genocide” of the Rohingya Muslim minority in Rakhine State in her own country that led to her precipitous and spectacular fall from grace. More importantly, Aung San Suu Kyi has contaminated the enduring symbol of peace and hope across the globe, disappointed the global peace movement, and still haunts the Nobel Committee itself.

In fact, Myanmar’s leader is at this very moment at the UN International Court of Justice (ICJ). She is expected to address the Court tomorrow to defend her country against accusations of genocide.


2019 Nobel Peace Laureate

Fast forward to 2019. In October, members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee gathered in their iconic and hermetically sealed enclave not far from the North Pole and awarded the Nobel Peace Prize 2019 to Abiy Ahmed Ali “for his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, and in particular for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighbouring Eritrea.” In

Abiy Ahmed’s assumption of power has lit a glimmer of hope in a country steeped in tyranny and misery. A key element in PM Abiy’s reform package was his decision to end the border conflict and seemingly endless state of war with Eritrea. There were sufficient grounds to assume that the new, young and relatively inexperienced Prime Minister has displayed some of the basic attributes of an inspirational, even transformational, leader in the making. Many influential global actors, among them the Norwegian Nobel Committee, therefore, quickly jumped on the magical Abiy wagon, and showered him with accolades to reward him for his courageous initiatives, and more importantly, to encourage the young leader to stay on course.

However, the true measure of a genuine national leader cannot be taken solely on the basis of personal qualities and achievements. A great deal of his/her fate is inextricably linked with that of the nation he/she leads. Here in lies the accursed corner that brings the 1991 and 2019 Nobel Peace Laureates together. The plight of the Rohingya ultimately revealed who the 1991 Nobel Peace Laureate truly was, and probably sealed her fate and legacy. For Abiy Ahmed the War Crimes and mass graves in the Ogaden region might catapult him into an ugly limelight as an eternal companion of the most notorious and arguably most evil Nobel Peace Laureate in recent times.

The Ethiopian State under the leadership of its ruling party EPRDF had perpetrated a savage campaign of collective punishment and mass murder in the Ogaden region for 23 years, especially between 2007 and 2017. The notorious jail Ogaden served as the central specialized torture and terror clinic for refining and perfecting new techniques tailor-made for the innovation in genocide pioneered by the EPRDF-led Ethiopian Government. The current Prime Minister was a senior intelligent officer in the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) at that time.

The plight of the victims of the two-decade long state-sponsored terror in the Ogaden region probably never featured in the minds and majestic contemplations of the lords of global peace. However, the Ogaden debacle might transform the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize into a jinxed affair for both the recipient and giver, presenting a haunting sense of déjà vu all over again.

There is credible evidence that war crimes and crimes against humanity had been committed in the Ogaden region as documented by reputed human rights organizations like Human Rights Watch. Some organizations even went as far as accusing the Ethiopian Government of “genocide” in the Ogaden. Most importantly, an international case against the Government of Ethiopia’s gross and egregious violations in the Ogaden is currently under consideration in the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights based in Banjul, Gambia.

However, PM Ahmed’s fate and legacy need not be exactly the same as those of the 1991 Nobel Laureate. He can avoid that terrible eventuality by coming clean as to what happened in the Ogaden region between 1994 and 2017. When he came to power, PM Ahmed told members of the Parliament that the Ethiopian state terrorized its own people. This was the first time ever that an Ethiopian leader had taken such a courageous stance on the side of truth and justice. He therefore has what it takes to reveal to his own people and the world what he knows about the war crimes in the Ogaden region and take all the necessary measures to address it.

In this connection, PM Ahmed may consider the following steps:

  1.  Set up an independent international panel of experts to establish the facts about what transpired in the Ogaden region. The independent international fact-finding mission on Myanmar might provide some tips.
  2. Act upon the verdicts and recommendations of panel of experts.
  3. Make sure that the victims get justice.

I wish PM Ahmed well.

Keynanhassan@yahoo.com is a retired former senior UN Official who worked in Africa, Asia and Europe

*This article was originally published on Wardheernews on 10 December 2019, the day Abiy received the Prize in Oslo.

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OPEN LETTER TO UN SECRETARY GENERAL RE: SITUATION IN OROMIA, ETHIOPIA

UN Secretary General António Guterres

Dear Mr. Secretary-General,

The events unfolding in Ethiopia are deeply troubling. Following the assassination of Haacaalu Hundeessaa, a popular artist and activist, by unknown assailants in the capital, Addis Ababa, late on Monday night, mass demonstrations erupted across the country. Tension is very high and tens of thousands of protesters are on the streets to express their outrage about the senseless killing of their beloved icon. Prominent opposition leaders from Oromia have been arrested. Internet is shut down as are some private media outlets.

Evidence is sketchy and intermittent, but there are credible reports indicating widespread upheavals, including violent confrontations. The Government’s attempt to restore calm seems to have had little impact. In fact, it appears that the reaction of the security forces has deepened the frustration and anger of the grief-stricken masses. According to Human Rights Watch, the authorities’ heavy-handed crackdown ‘could make a volatile situation even worse.’ State media reported a death toll approaching one hundred. Other sources quote numbers that are much higher. The situation is such that things can get out of control easily. And the fact that the government blocked access to internet has added another layer of complication and anxiety.

The young and talented artist whose life was brutally cut short hailed from the Oromo people. Although they are the demographic majority, the Oromo people have been at the receiving end of decades of repression, humiliation, and slaughter. Haacaalu Hundeessaa’s cold-blooded murder has touched a raw nerve, deepening and further inflaming the historic grievances and resentment felt by the Oromo nation. This came on the top of the horrendous killing of Ariti Shununde by the security forces weeks back. The 32-year old Oromo businessman was shot in the back because his phone rang, according to Amnesty International.

The Oromo people feel that they are being targeted. And if the Oromo people feel threatened and marked for collective punishment, this could lead to unforeseen large-scale communal strife, even civil war. All citizens and all communities could be adversely affected, especially if law and order break down completely. Situations like these create environments in which purveyors of hatred and bigotry exploit and whip up primordial passions.

Ethiopia is a complex country with a long history of authoritarian regimes deeply rooted in a culture of violence and epidemic of protracted conflicts and repression. The latest manifestation of this grim reality became evident between 2007 and 2017 when the Ethiopian Defense Forces cordoned off the vast plains of the Ogaden and turned them into killing fields on the pretext that the government was fighting insurgents. Government forces perpetrated what Human Rights Watch meticulously documented as war crimes and crimes against humanity, including extrajudicial killings, mass incarceration, widespread torture, burning of villages, rape as a weapon of war, economic blockade and starvation. The whole infrastructure and assets of the Ethiopian State were mobilized and deployed to target entire communities and mark them for collective persecution and mass murder. Tens of thousands were slaughtered with impunity.

The UN and wider international community fielded missions, conducted surveys, compiled reports, dispatched diplomatic cables to their headquarters, occasionally held muted press conferences, and engaged Ethiopian authorities in meaningless encounters. However, their preferred method swung between “quite diplomacy” that suited the government and silence. Some put themselves in situations in which they had come close to being complicit or compromised. I mention this because similar, indeed identical, scenarios are evident in some parts of Oromia. Innocent people are being intimidated, imprisoned, or killed by the security forces. The Ethiopian State suffers from a perennial affliction that causes it to see conspiracies and external enemies everywhere whenever it confronts determined homegrown opposition. It’s quick to label its own citizens and communities as agents of external foes as a pretext to violently suppress or even eliminate dissent.

With the 2019 Nobel Peace Laureate at the helm, poor and traumatized Ethiopians have hoped for the breaking of a new dawn, one that is heavy with promise. However, the ugly demons that have violently convulsed this country for decades seem to have quickly resumed their bloody and wrecking business. We fear the worst.

Mr. Secretary-General,

This is an urgent appeal to you to do everything humanly possible to closely monitor the dangerous and potentially calamitous situation unfolding in Ethiopia. As an intergovernmental organization formed by and accountable to sovereign states, the United Nations is severely constrained to directly intervene in the internal affairs of individual countries, although such action is permissible in situations where mass slaughter is imminent and international peace and security is at stake.

The state of affairs currently prevailing in Ethiopia may not seem too alarming to warrant the immediate involvement of the United Nations Security Council for now. However, it is important enough to deserve your attention and leadership. The UN has not yet fully recovered from the shame and humiliation of being associated with the genocides in Bosnia and Rwanda. We hope that complacency, indifference or tragic errors of judgement would not lead the UN to be saddled with another debacle, this time in Ethiopia.

The Oromo people need protection. All vulnerable communities in Ethiopia need protection. As the world’s Chief Diplomat, you are well positioned to mobilize and motivate the international community to help Ethiopia pull back from the abyss.

May peace, justice and freedom prevail in Ethiopia and everywhere where tyranny has a foothold.

Sincerely,

Hassan Keynan

keynanhassan@yahoo.com

Transmitted via US Postal service and electronic mail, 2 July 2020

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Farmaajo Will Be Re-elected, But He Won’t Have a Country to Rule

By Hassan Keynan

Prediction and byzantine Somali politics do not easily mix. Nevertheless, one could take a chance to predict that President Farmaajo and Company are likely to return to power. He will NOT come back through fair play. Fair and credible elections do not seem to be top among his priorities. His fortune leader saw the stars aligned for the great leader.

Farmaajo will return through a combination of factors: sheer ambition, will, early planning, effective organization, well-resourced mobilization, uncompromising commitment and singular determination to achieve results by any means necessary. He is arrogant and opportunistic, and stops at nothing to get what he wants. Farmaajo will use violence, intimidation, blackmail, deception and fraud to get him re-elected. He will not even hesitate to commit treason if it delivers for him. Variations of all these elements have been evident from the day Farmaajo was elected President in February 2017.

Farmaajo and Hassan Khaire are unmatched in the relentless, ruthless, merciless, and shameless manner in which they exploit and cynically manipulate the Constitution, national sovereignty, patriotic sentiments, clan politics, state authority and assets, executive powers and privileges, legislative and regulatory bodies and instruments, electoral laws, diplomatic protocols, and bilateral and multilateral relations. State and regulatory capture on a scale unparalleled in the annals of Somali politics.

Qatar and Ethiopiaare also two key and heavily consequential factors in Farmaajo’s strategic and electoral calculus. Qatar provides cash, guns, and sophisticated security and surveillance capabilities, coupled with robust political, diplomatic and media support. In fact, there is a growing realization among Western observers and influential African actors that Somalia has become a Qatari Satellite outpost run by top-notch Qatari assets. Ethiopia’s contribution is less sophisticated, medieval and quite crude, but nevertheless effective. It’s deployed in the form of brute military force to intimidate Farmaajo’s opponents, dismantle autonomous federal governance structures, and fraudulently alter the electoral landscape.

Naive opposition. Farmaajo’s ambition and prospects have been enhanced by weak, divided, low-ambition and in some respect naive opposition forces. With the exception of a few, Farmaajo’s political competitors do not seem to understand what they’re up against. They blindly appeal to constitutional, legal and legislative institutions that have been captured, compromised or gutted. They tend to believe that good intentions, common sense, and/or patriotic duty will prevail in contexts and environments dominated by deceit, predatory instincts, and partisan agendas. They insist on adherence to the 4-year constitutional term limit when the incumbent is hell bent on constantly bending the rule, changing the rules of the game, or moving the goal post. And they tend to leave serious matters to chance and luck. Every time Farmaajo and opposition forces meet, the former gets what he wants, i.e. results.  The latter get token compromises, empty promises, or platitudes.

Short-lived victory. Although Farmaajo is likely to return to power, his reign is unlikely to last long or end peacefully. He might be forced to leave power with plenty of regret, diminished fortunes, and ruinous legacy. And most tragically without a country. The end might be eerily similar to the tragic events of early 1991.

Unknown scenario. All political dispensations contain many unknowns that could take the form of unexpected blessings or nasty surprises. Somali politics is particularly and inherently prone to this phenomenon. One unknown is that Farmaajo’s formidable re-election bid might falter and eventually fail spectacularly. And the opposition might pull off a mighty win. A second Unknown is that Farmaajo and Company might win and manage to hold on to power for a full second 4-year term.

The coming six months will be heavy with both huge expectations and corrosive anxieties.

Hassan Keynan is a former Professor and a senior retired UN official who worked in Africa, Asia and Europe

keynanhassan@yahoo.com

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Tyranny And Kleptocracy: Ethiopia’s Chronic Afflictions

Colonel Abiy Ahmed Ali
By Hassan Keynan

Ethiopian leaders and political class do not see nor do they hear the evil and ugly demons residing in the inner sanctum of their empire. Ethiopia suffers from multiple perennial afflictions. The two most lethal ones are tyranny and kleptocracy.

Tyranny

Tyranny has deeper roots in Ethiopia and it has robbed Ethiopians of their freedom, liberty, and dignity. From its inception Ethiopia has been synonymous with tyranny. During the past 130 years one tyrant replaced another. Each tyrant did what all tyrants do best: terrorize the people they call their own.

From the reign of Menelik to the rule of Meles, tyranny held sway. And in the end tyranny had tormented both the architects and dispensers of terror and its teeming victims. As a result, peace has eluded Menelik’s palace. And liberty and basic human dignity have eluded the masses.

The rule of tyrants self-destructs.

Kleptocracy

Kleptocracy also has deeper roots in Ethiopia. The rule of thieves has deprived Ethiopians of their wealth and livelihoods. Between 1980 to 2018 the political elite looted over $84 billion dollars, according to the Illicit Financial Flows in Africa (2020) report.  For 38 years, the occupants of Menelik’s palace on average stole $2 billion and $200 million every single year.

In the end the looted billions could not keep the predatory cabal in power. They stole but they did not live or find peace to enjoy their ill-gotten gains. However, they succeeded in keeping their populations in a permanent state of misery, poverty, and illiteracy.

The rule of thieves intoxicates leaders and impoverishes citizens.

7th King, Prosperity Party, and GERD

The self-declared 7th King of Ethiopian is not capable of changing this tragic reality. Abiy Ahmed Ali idolizes the 1st King, Menelik, the 1st tyrant and founding hegemon. He worships his mentor and role model, the 6th King Meles Zenawi. This means that Abiy Ahmed Ali gets inspiration from Ethiopia’s two worst tyrants. He is therefore unlikely to save Ethiopia from its two most lethal afflictions: tyranny and kleptocracy. In fact, Abiy Ahmed may well outperform all his predecessors in both as he is the most inexperienced, erratic and delusion-prone leader Ethiopia has ever known.

The much-hyped Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is not likely to make any difference either. Tyrants and kleptocrats mess nations up, especially poor ones, with undeveloped political, legislative, and judicial institutions.

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

The GERD costs $4.6 billion. And the narrative peddled by Abiy and company is that the GERD will miraculously transform the economy and livelihoods of Ethiopians. Just imagine the difference the $84 billion that were stolen would have made in the lives of ordinary Ethiopians had the money been appropriately invested.

Currently, the Prosperity Party (PP) is using and exploiting the GERD to whip poverty-stricken masses into a frenzy of nationalistic fervor directed at what is portrayed as an Egyptian plot to question Ethiopia’s sovereignty over the waters of the Blue Nile. It is true that Cairo is pursuing its own strategic interest; and would do everything in its power to win its protracted confrontation with Ethiopia over the management of the mighty Nile. However, it is equally true that PM Abiy Ahmed and PP have another agenda hidden within the broader and inherently complex Nile agenda. Abiy Ahmed and his political allies are likely to win if a water war breaks out between Egypt and Ethiopia. War with Egypt would certainly deepen tyranny and repression at home. And if there isn’t war with Cairo, Abiy Ahmed might provoke one in another country, one much closer to home. Peace is not on the mind of the 2019 Nobel Peace Laureate. They will win even if the dispute is settled peacefully. A peaceful settlement would probably further entrench kleptocracy and mass poverty. In both scenarios poor Ethiopians would not only loose; they would also suffer the humiliation and trauma of being deceiving into becoming actively and willingly complicit in their enslavement and impoverishment. It’s scary. 

No party with the name Prosperity has ever ushered in an era of plenty in any country anywhere.

 Let freedom reign! Prosperity will follow.

 

Hassan Keynan is a former Professor and a senior retired UN official who worked in Africa, Asia and Europe

 

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Is Ethiopia Transparent about the COVID-19 Situation in the Country?

Federal Minister of Health (middle)
By Hassan Keynan

Ethiopia’s latest Notification Note on COVID-19 Situational Update paints the picture of a country that is relatively in good shape and very much in control of the spread of the pandemic across the country: 123 cases and 3 deaths to date. The report also indicates a total of 13,645 laboratory tests carried out. 957 tests were conducted during the past 24 hours, with only one new case confirmed in Jigjiga, the Capital of the Somali Regional State (SRS). These are encouraging numbers. And the temptation to congratulate the leadership of the country, in particular the Minister of Health and her team, is strong, even irresistible.

However, two key factors prompt everyone to exercise a great deal of caution. The first concerns the nature and epidemiology of COVID-19. The second relates to what we know about Ethiopian history, sociology, and governance.

What We Know about the Coronavirus

The novel coronavirus is a new virus. The first reports of its existence emerged in December last year. Scientists and experts of infectious diseases do not yet know much about it. what is known is very limited and extremely frightening. It has been given a name: severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). And the disease it causes has a name: coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Chinese and French scientists have mapped and sequenced the genome of coronavirus. The most terrifying thing about coronavirus is that it is the most infectious virus known to date. The levels of spread and severity associated with it are truly alarming. Infections and deaths grew exponentially. In Africa the number of infections grew by 43% in just one week, according to the African Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Most frighteningly, people with no symptoms carry and spread the virus without their knowledge. This is why the World Health Organization (WHO) has characterized it as a pandemic. From its origin in Wuhan, China, SARS-CoV-2 has spread to all continents and all countries, initially via air travel and later through community spread. The elderly, the poor, the sick, and the economically vulnerable account for the vast majority of the deaths attributed to coronavirus.
The coronavirus has humbled the world’s richest and most powerful countries. As of this moment the United States, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom account for 1.8 million of the 2.9 million confirmed cases worldwide. The US alone accounts for nearly 30 percent of infections and more than 25 percent of all deaths worldwide. It has overwhelmed the health systems of the most advanced countries; and wrecked their economies. In the US alone the stock market lost more than 7 trillion dollars, three times the total wealth of Africa, in just a few weeks. 26 million lost their jobs. And tens of thousands of proud and hard-working citizens have suddenly found themselves queuing in front of food banks across the country for hours to feed their families.  
In a special preview of June 2020 issue of The Atlantic, George Packer has captured how the coronavirus humbled the sole remaining super power.

Every morning in the endless month of March, Americans woke up to find themselves citizens of a failed state. With no national plan—no coherent instructions at all—families, schools, and offices were left to decide on their own whether to shut down and take shelter…Russia, Taiwan, and the United Nations sent humanitarian aid to the world’s richest power—a beggar nation in utter chaos.

What We know about Ethiopia

High-risk country: According to The Lancet (20 February 2020), Ethiopia is among the five “high-risk” countries in Africa due to the calculus of risk of COVID-19 importation on the basis of their air-travel links with China and other countries with higher levels of coronavirus infection. Ethiopian Airlines is the largest carrier in Africa and operates nearly half of the flights from Africa to China. In addition to tourist travel, Chinese business men and women visit Ethiopia in considerable numbers. Most importantly, Ethiopia was quite late in suspending flights to China. This means that all the people who came from China to Ethiopia or transited in Addis Ababa from December last year could have carried the coronavirus.

Large and highly vulnerable population: According to the World Bank, Ethiopia has the second largest population in Sub-Saharan Africa, estimated at 109 million (2018); and it is one of the poorest countries in the world. In addition to poverty, large sections of the populations are weighed down by multiple vulnerabilities, including a debilitating disease burden: lower respiratory infections (pneumonia and bronchitis), diarrheal diseases, and higher incidences of HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and malaria. To these disabling constraints can be added high levels of illiteracy, a deadly factor that undermines healthy living. There are nearly 40 million Ethiopians aged 15 years and older who lack basic literacy skills.

Inadequate water and sanitation: Over 80 percent of the population live in rural areas. Yet soap and water were available in only 7% of rural households, according to the 2016 Demographic and Health Survey.  The corresponding figure for urban households was 28%. Lack of safe drinking water, soap, and other cleaning agents is evident across large swathes of the country.

Limited health capacity and infrastructure: Complete and accurate statistics on Ethiopia’s health system are rarely available. However, it is widely agreed that the country’s health capacity and infrastructure suffer from multiple deficiencies. Statistics pertaining to number of physicians (22 per million), nurses, and hospital beds (6.3 per 1000) are less than optimum. Funding for the health sector is inadequate and largely dependent on foreign aid. The availability of critical drugs is limited. Reports also indicate a considerable volume of fake and expired drugs entering the country. In terms of respirators Ethiopia is reported to have 450. Fifty four of these are reserved for coronavirus patients.

Serious data gaps: The health sector in Ethiopia is addled with serious data gaps. Demographic data is sketchy and mostly unreliable. Only 2% of children under age five are registered with civil authorities, according to the 2016 Demographic and Health Survey. The corresponding figure for the urban areas is 12%. Tens of millions do not have birth certificates and/or personal identity cards or numbers. The Government simply does not know where they are at any particular time. Epidemiological data is equally scant. Tracing sick patients even if they have visited health outpost is impossible.

Political and governance factors: Historically Ethiopia has been characterized by medieval, feudalist and inherently authoritarian state system run by a praetorian and predatory political class. This is the main reasons why misery and tyranny have deeper roots in Ethiopia. There is a tendency among the political class to ignore, suppress, deny, or dismiss truth and basic facts about the state of affairs prevailing in the country. For example, successive Ethiopian government have routinely denied large scale famines, state sponsored terror campaigns, and even outbreak of diseases. When the current Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO) was the health Minister of Ethiopia, he reportedly mobilized the government and the health professionals to hide a terrible outbreak of cholera in the Somali Regional State (SRS). Other reports indicate a similar attempt to politicize and manipulate the data on HIV/AIDS with a view to extracting more resources from the international community.

The Somali Regional State is particularly vulnerable: The Somali Regional State has the second 
largest territory and third largest population in Ethiopia. Yet it lags all other regions in all social and developmental indicators. Decades of marginalization and repression have impoverished and traumatized the entire population. The brutal state-sponsored terror campaign launched by the government between 2007 and 2017 has methodically and mercilessly destroyed the social cohesion and all economic foundations in the region. The entire population have been robed of their resourceful and resilient mechanism for survival. In addition, the Somali Region has the longest porous border with three countries: Djibouti, Kenya and Somalia. One factor that is likely to increase the rate of coronavirus infection in the Somali Region is the use of the psycho-stimulant khat (Catha edulis), especially in the Capital City, Jigjiga. Khat markets are overcrowded, chaotic, and often in poor hygienic conditions. Khat is an economic boon for Ethiopia and the Oromia Region. But there is no justification to keep these markets open. Urgent action is needed to tackle this threat before it is too late.
The first COVID-19 case in the Somali Region was identified yesterday, according to the latest Notification Note on COVID-19 Situational Update. The Government has not released much information about the identity and movements of the person involved. However, local reports indicate that he was from Northern Ethiopia and he was deported from neighbouring Somalia. It appears that the Federal Ministry of Health is not sufficiently transparent about this case. And given what we learned about how one individual can infect a large number of people, this confirmed person may have already triggered an insidious community spread in Jigjiga and all other places he visited. At infection rate 3.3 one person could infect up to 153,000 individuals. 

Conclusion

 Given what we know about the coronavirus and Ethiopia, it can be reasonably concluded that the COVID-19 saga circulated by the authorities in Addis Ababa is at best incomplete. The coronavirus is a wrecker. Everywhere it reached it gutted nations, devastated communities, and wrecked economies on scale not seen in a century. It is certain that this beast will not spare Ethiopia, a country with multiple and debilitating vulnerabilities and constraints. The UN Economic Commission for Africa estimates that COVID-19 is likely to cause between 300,000 and 3.3 million deaths in Africa.
The only hope is that Ethiopia’s population is predominantly young. The vast majority are therefore likely to recover if infected, although the heavy disease burden in the country might greatly diminish their chances of complete recovery or even survival.
The best strategy to minimize the spread of coronavirus to date is social distancing and widespread use of masks or improvised pieces to cover the mouth and nose. The Ethiopian government must mobilize all its resources, especially communication and media outlets, to promote and where possible enforce manageable stay home orders, social distancing, and use of masks across the country. These, coupled with early testing and appropriate therapies, constitute the best and most effective interventions to control this lethal contagion at the present time.
Most importantly, Ethiopia must be truthful and transparent about what it knows and what it does not know about the state of the pandemic in the country. The culture of suppressing, manipulating truth and facts, or outright denial has not served Ethiopia in the past. Coronavirus is denial proof.

Hassan Keynan is a former Professor at the Somali National University and a senior retired UN official who worked in Africa, Asia and Europe
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Is Ethiopia Squandering Peace and Wealth in the Gas-Rich Ogaden Region?

Ethiopia and ONLF delegation during the signing of the Asmara Joint Declaration
Hassan Keynan

The Somali Regional State (SRS) occupies the second largest territory and has the third largest population in Ethiopia. Its location is very strategic to the security of Ethiopia and the stability of the Horn of Africa Region. Most importantly, the discovery of huge deposits of natural gas in the Ogaden basin constitutes arguably the biggest and richest source of liquidity for Ethiopia’s debt-ridden and nearly bankrupt economy. When exporting of the estimated 6.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas begins in 2021, Ethiopia is expected to earn more than $7 billion yearly.
Yet, peace and stability in this strategic and economically important region remain at best fragile. After twenty-five years of protracted and costly armed insurgency, Ethiopia and the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) signed a Joint Declaration in Asmara, Eritrea, on 21 October 2019. The Ethiopian Delegation was led by the former Foreign Minister, HE Workneh Gebeyehu, and included the current Finance Minister, Ahmed Shide, and the President of the Somali Regional State, HE Mustafa Omer. Admiral Mohamed Omar Osman, ONLF Chairman, led the ONLF delegation. This has brought about unprecedented peace in a region traumatized by war and state-sponsored terror for decades.
There is near universal consensus that the ONLF has fully adhered to the terms of the Declaration. Not a single violation by ONLF was recorded and verified. However, this has not saved ONLF leadership, rank and file, and its supporters from being at the receiving end of serious provocation, humiliation, and even harassment at the hands of the other party. The provocations especially came from senior members of the SRS government. ONLF’s right to operate as a registered and legal political party was unlawfully restricted and at times openly violated. Its members have been harassed and at least two members of its Central Committee were arrested without adequate legal process. Even the public display of ONLF insignias, which were vetted and approved by the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), were prohibited by provincial and district officials on the orders of the Regional Government. Some reports even indicate that senior officers of the Liyu Police were ordered to remove ONLF flags. And at least on two occasions, this has led to a serious confrontation between local administrations and ONLF supporters.
And more recently, senior members of the SRS cabinet and the President himself have directly participated in what appeared to be a highly orchestrated campaign to provoke, discredit and malign the ONLF. This has culminated in the President himself accusing the ONLF of committing massacres and calling them to atone for their sins. This unfortunate and deeply corrosive confrontation with the ONLF constitutes a flagrant breach of the Joint Declaration and puts the fragile peace in the region in peril. Seasoned commentators who are familiar with and closely follow Ethiopian politics have expressed concern that Prime Minister Ahmed and his administration have neglected the implementation of the Asmara Joint Declaration. 
As if this was not enough to preoccupy the President and his team, a serious and potentially calamitous political and governance earthquake has shaken the fledgling regional administration. During the past two weeks the Somali Regional State (SRS) has been catapulted into a befuddled and in many ways bizarre political and governance spectacle. This began with the sudden firing and arrest of the Chief Protocol and security officer of the Presidency. This was followed by the dismissal and attempted arrest of the Head of the Security and Justice Bureau, a move challenged by senior members of the SRS’ Executive Council. Questions were raised regarding the legality and procedural efficacy of the President’s decision. Initial statements dispatched to the media seemed to allege an attempted palace coup. But this allegation has quickly fizzled out as it had no basis in reality.
Then came the saga of the top leadership of the SRS being summoned to Addis Ababa first for a Prosperity Party (PP) meeting, and second, a meeting with the Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, to discuss and sort out the messy state of affairs in the Somali Region. Everything turned out to be highly contested and at times even rambunctious. Who should participate in the meetings and who should not? Who has the authority to remove a senior member of the SRS’s Executive Council and Prosperity Party? Did the Prime Minister intervene in the internal affairs of the SRS as reportedly alleged by President Mustafa or didn’t he?
The air inside the PP meeting halls was heavy with confusion, resentment, anger, and mistrust. At one point the Prime Minister reportedly got visibly upset at the suggestion that he and/or his government was illegally intervening in the governance of the SRS. On his part, President Mustafa was infuriated when he saw the former head of the Security and Justice Bureau that he just dismissed present and participating in the meetings. Some early reports indicated that he was so smitten with rage that he stormed out of the meeting. However, this turned out to be not more than a rumor peddled and exploited in equal measure by both the supporters and opponents of the President. President Mustafa sat through all the meetings. The meetings in Addis Ababa, however, turned out to be a source of disappointment and frustration for the President.
All these unfortunate and extremely embarrassing events that have engulfed the SRS and its leadership could have been avoided had there been sound and solid preparations for the timely and effective implementation of the Asmara Joint-Declaration together with a huge capacity injection to improve the administrative and governance capabilities of the regional government.
The following suggestions could be considered to reduce and eventually eliminate the root causes of some of the deep-seated and recurring political, legal, and governance challenges afflicting the SRS.
1)    The Federal Government to facilitate the formation and effective operationalization of the “Joint Committee” mentioned in the Asmara Joint Declaration between Ethiopia and ONLF.
2)    The SRS to closely coordinate with the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) regarding the legality of registered political parties, their insignias, and their activities.
3)    The SRS in collaboration with the Federal Government to ensure that incidences of corruption and abuse of power are curtailed.
4)    The Federal Government and SRS to ensure that the Somali Region receives its fair share of wealth generated from the oil and gas in the Ogaden basin. This is a right and an investment in peace and sustainable development for SRS and Ethiopia as a whole.
Lasting peace in the restive and gas-rich Ogaden Region may turn out to be more strategic and more economically profitable than the peace with Eritrea for which Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. 

The Ogaden Question has arguably been Ethiopia’s biggest challenge and has proved a tough nut to crack. From Menelik to Meles, every Ethiopian leader found a messy quagmire in the vast plains of the Ogaden. PM Abiy Ahmed may have been overwhelmed by the myriad conflicts that have erupted elsewhere in the country. But it would be sad, indeed tragic, if the invaluable opportunities provided by the Asmara Joint Declaration are missed or scuttled.

Herein lies an historic opportunity for PM Ahmed and his government to find a just and durable solution to a perennial conundrum. If successful PM Ahmed would forever be remembered for ridding Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa of centuries old affliction and the myriad ruinous legacies it has routinely spawned for decades.

Hassan Keynan is a former Professor at the Somali National University and a senior retired UN official who worked in Africa, Asia and Europe

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The New Scramble for Somalia: The Role of Diaspora Somalis with dual citizenship

Hassan Keynan
Becoming an American citizen through naturalization requires taking the Oath of Allegiance, loudly. The first part of the Oath of Allegiance reads, “I hereby declare, on oath, that I absolutely and entirely renounce and abjure all allegiance and fidelity to any foreign prince, potentate, state, or sovereignty of whom or which I have heretofore been a subject or citizen.” Mr. Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo did exactly that when he took the Oath of Allegiance and became a US citizen some 30 years ago. On 8 February 2017, he was elected President of the Federal Republic of Somalia.
President Farmaajo is not alone. His administration is packed with diaspora Somalis holding dual citizenship, who returned from Europe, North America, and Australia. Diaspora Somalis from these continents represent less than 30 percent of the estimated 2 million Somali immigrants abroad; and about 5 percent of the total Somali population.  However, politically they disproportionately dominate state institutions, at federal and state levels. For our purpose here, attention will be devoted to the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). Details are sketchy, as government officials do not feel or believe that they ought to disclose their association with foreign powers through citizenship or any other affiliation. Nevertheless, information compiled from different sources indicates that they have established and maintain a firm foothold in all branches of the Federal Government (FG), especially the executive and legislature.
The American Camp: Somali-Americans occupy the most powerful position in the Federal Government of Somalia. The President of the Federal Republic of Somalia, who is also the head-of-state and Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces, leads the Camp. It also includes holders of important cabinet posts: Minister of Finance, Minister of Religious Affairs, Minister of Women and Human Rights, and Minister of Fisheries. American citizens of Somali origin also hold other important positions in the Federal Government.
The Norwegian Colony: Norwegian citizens of Somali origin prominently feature in the business of the FGS.  They occupy two of the top three most powerful positions in the country: The Prime Minister/Head-of-Government and Speaker of the People’s Assembly. In addition, they hold the positions of the Minister of Defence and Minister of education and Culture. A few are members of the Federal Parliament.
The Canadian Corner: Somali-Canadians preside over the largest number of ministerial portfolios, including some of most coveted posts in the cabinet. They are: Minister of Foreign Affairs, Minister of Constitutional Affairs, Minister of Planning, Minister of Transport and Aviation, and Minister of Labour.
Lone-star portfolios: Dual citizens hailing from Australia, Britain, Denmark, Nederland, and Sweden also hold cabinet posts. Each has one ministerial position: Energy & Water, Health, Posts, Telecom & Technology, Disaster response, and Internal Security.

Concerns about dual citizenship: divided loyalties and conflict of interests

Acquiring dual citizenship is a personal decision. It bestows a variety of opportunities and benefits on the holder. Most importantly, it is perfectly legal according to the Provisional Constitution (PC) of Somalia. However, countries vary greatly when it comes to laws governing dual citizenship. Some reject it completely, while others permit dual citizenship with certain conditions and restrictions. It becomes particularly problematic when dual citizens seek and/or hold the highest public offices in a country. Concerns about dual citizens holding high political office primarily emanate from issues related to divided loyalties and conflict of interests.
Even big and powerful countries warn their citizens not to rush to professing allegiance to a foreign power. According to an editorial piece by the Los Angeles Times (December 26, 2014) the U.S. State Department warns American citizens from ‘retaining or applying for citizenship in another country.’ The most important reason given was that dual citizenship could be seen as a security threat, creating a situation in which dual citizens could be barred from obtaining employment in some diplomatic and intelligence/security positions considered to be highly sensitive.  More recently, issues relating to dual citizenship have turned Australian politics topsy-turvy as many MPs lost their parliamentary position for failing to disclose and renounce their status as dual citizens before they stood for election. In Ukraine, a country in which more than 100 members of parliament are dual citizens, MPs “flaunt the laws of the country, route their money into hidden accounts in tax havens, and generally enrich themselves at their country’s expense,” according to an article published on Forbes webpage (July 31, 2017). The article also mentions the case of a former Prime Minister who was travelling on a foreign passport and detained in Switzerland ‘for money laundering,’ and that of another senior official in the Ukrainian fiscal service, who ‘may be tried in Britain on corruption charges due to his British Citizenship.’ The practice in most countries is that dual citizens are either barred from occupying top national leadership positions, or they voluntarily renounce their second citizenship.

The special case of Somalia

The situation in Somalia is both different and rare. Somalia has just started the process of moving out of the degrading and deeply humiliating legacy of a failed state. Its Provisional Constitution (PC) is in disarray and highly contested. In fact, the Somali people have not been consulted about the provisions in the PC that allow dual citizenship.  Its institutions are fragile and extremely vulnerable to infiltration, destabilization, corruption, and even takeover by internal usurpers and/or external predators with vested strategic and geopolitical interests. Moreover, dual citizens have and wield immense executive and legislative powers in a context characterized by lack of accountability and transparency, coupled with debilitating capacity limitations. How these enormous powers are used or abused and in favour of whom and against whom is therefore a matter of utmost importance. Somalis and informed foreigners who closely follow the events unfolding in the country express concerns that are many, deep, and legitimate.
Domination of power: There is not any country in Africa or elsewhere where so much power is concentrated in so few individuals with dual citizenship. The numbers are staggering. Access to the reigns of power is quick, easy and unfettered for dual citizenship. They hardly go through appropriate background checks. This has become a source of frustration and resentment among non-diaspora Somalis, who feel exploited and marginalized in their own country. Current events indicate a disturbing trend regarding the manner in which state power and authority has been exercised. Contrary to the principles of the PC, the power and resources of the state are concentrated in a few federal entities based in Mogadishu, causing a huge and deepening crisis between the FGS and Federal Member States (FMS). This is a serious, even dangerous, matter which, if not resolved, could squander the limited gains made, or even cause the entire fragile federal edifice to collapse.
Obsession with external legitimacy: There is evidence that the FGS looks towards external powers for legitimacy. This is bizarre in the context of established norms underlying state sovereignty and legitimacy. But in the peculiar and befuddled state of Somalia, it is seen as a normal practice. Since the presence and authority of the Federal Government across the country are very thin or non-existent, it finds it easier and more convenient to seek and depend on external actors not only for legitimacy but also for resources. The UN, EU, World Bank, IMF, AMISOM, IGAD, AU, UAE, USA, UK, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Djibouti have replaced the Somali people as the principal source of legitimacy for the Federal Government of Somalia. Shuttle visits to and weekends in Nairobi, Dubai, Ankara, Brussels, Washington, Addis Ababa, Kampala, Riyad, and Cairo have become easier and more frequent than spending time with and serving the citizens in Baidoa, Kismayo, Brava, Marka, Jowhar, Beledweyn, Dhusamareb, Galkayo, Garow, and Bosaso. Somaliland does not even feature in the business of the FGS except when Somaliland authorities seek or secure promising investment deals and development opportunities. Success and progress are measured in terms of pledges from the EU, promises from the World Bank, projects from the UN, and secret deals with both sides in the messy and deepening conflict in the Gulf.
Corruption and scramble for Somalia’s strategic assets: The strategically located Horn of Africa region is in the throes of a new and fierce scramble. Somalia is at once a strategic beachhead for the new, enterprising mission; and a principal target if the price is right. The new scramble for Somalia involves a wide range of competitors. The motives and interests of the scramblers vary greatly, as are the tools, narratives, capabilities, and resources deployed in the service of the business. The scramblers have their eyes focused on the country’s main strategic assets: ports, airports, marine resources, and areas with promising oil and mineral wealth. There is also a tough competition for other lucrative sectors, especially security, logistics, infrastructure, and service provision. As indicated in recent reports, the country is being fleeced openly and with total impunity. Diaspora Somalis have been implicated in a number of dubious, even illegal, deals either as brokers, lobbyists, shareholders, or facilitators. Concerns are also expressed regarding attempts by powerful forces in the FGS to bend, pervert, or flaunt existing laws or tamper with new legislative endeavors in the service of greed and corruption.  The Institutions of the Federal Government of Somalia are saddled with a host of lethal afflictions. The one that is most pervasive and most corrosive is corruption, a scourge that the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Somalia and Head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) recently referred to as ‘horrendous.’ Reports from the UN, World Bank and other credible sources have documented in great detail the horrendous levels of corruption and embezzlement during the past seven years. These reports indicate that “70 percent of funds that had been earmarked for development and reconstruction in Somalia were unaccounted for.” On 2 March 2014 the Daily Nation in Kenya published a summary of an audit report that alleged an estimated $700 million, mostly from Arab countries, basically ended in the pockets of senior government officials between 2000 and 2013.

Role of the International Community

For over a quarter century, the International Community (IC) has dominated the affairs of Somalia and the lives and future of Somali people. Billions have been spent to help Somalia navigate the arduous journey form protracted and bloody civil war, to failed state, to transitional state, to fragile state, and finally to a fully sovereign but bankrupt state. This was an unprecedented engagement and a rare experiment in the annals of international cooperation. For the IC, cracking the Somali conundrum has been a constant and messy struggle, involving a great deal of experimentation and improvisation. Some progress has been made. But the achievements have been too little, too slow, and uneven. Most importantly, there is very little to show for the billions of dollars spent to date. A huge chunk of the financial resources earmarked for the country went into the pockets of private individuals and groups many of whom occupied top leadership positions in the government. Things are so bad that ordinary Somalis are beginning to doubt if they have a country any more. The current government has made serious efforts to address the scourge of corruption that blighted the country for decades. However, given the combined and deadly impact of weak government, fragile institutions, and powerful and entrenched networks of corruption, it is hard to even contemplate a satisfactory resolution anytime soon. It is therefore high time for the IC, the UN in particular, to realize that it cannot continue financing an expensive fiction forever. The monster the IC has been feeding and protecting for more than two decades might end up destroying whatever is left of its credibility and integrity, and in the process leave an entire nation feeling betrayed, humiliated, and profoundly angry.
Hassan Keynan is a former Professor at the Somali National University and a senior retired UN official who worked in Africa, Asia and Europe
keynanhassan@yahoo.com
This article was first published in Barkinka in May 2018
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Open Letter to the Emir of Qatar: Has the News from Jubaland Reached You?

Your Highness Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani,
I write to you to deliver a message from the besieged people of Jubbaland, Somalia. Have you heard about the brutal blockade imposed on the people of Jubaland by the rogue Mogadishu-based government that misgoverns my country with your backing and blessing? Has the news of the human tragedy unfolding in the Jubbaland State of Somalia reached you? What have the poor and vulnerable people of Jubaland done to you and your country to deserve such savage and egregious assault on their humanity and dignity in the hands of the proxies of the Al-Thani ruling family in Mogadishu?
Your Highness,
Since the imposition of the blockade on your country by your Arab neighbors and former allies two years ago, you and your envoys have been going around the world to protest against the decision by Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt to punish and isolate your country. You have even spent a fortune to procure the services of highflying public relations firms to lobby great powers and influential global opinion makers on your and your country’s behalf. During the recently concluded United Nations General Assembly meeting, you spoke articulately and passionately about the hardships suffered by your people following the blockade slabbed on Qatar. Your speech included the following moving statement:
I stand before you while my country and people are subjected to a continuing and unjust blockade imposed since June the 6th{2017} by neighboring countries. The blockade involves all aspects of life including severing family ties…The blockade was imposed abruptly and without warning, prompting Qataris to consider it a kind of betrayal (highlights added).
Your Highness,
How could you reconcile the polar opposites so profoundly ingrained in your ways and so profusely esteemed in your governance? How can you so vehemently condemn and resist the isolation of your country by rival Arab nations and at the same time enable and empower your proxies in Mogadishu to blockade ‘abruptly and without warning’ and collectively punish a people much poorer and more vulnerable that ordinary Qataris? What gain is there for the ruling Al-Thani family in depriving the children of Jubaland of the vaccines so critical for their health and development? How can you remain silent when known Qatari assets in Mogadishu use and deploy funds and military arsenal provided by your country to deny the elderly, the sick and pregnant mothers the medical care they urgently need? Are the children, elderly and mothers of Jubaland less human than their Qatari counterparts? Do they not deserve the basic human rights, freedoms, and dignity you persistently and proudly proclaim for your people?
The people of Jubaland do not have the billions of dollars and huge investment assets that allowed you to transport by air herds of Holstein cows from Europe overnight to ensure that Qatari families and households have milk for their children. However, they, by the grace of Almighty God, shall survive the unjust and egregious assault on their lives, livelihoods and dignity.
Qatari’s current stance on Jubaland in particular and Somalia in general is all the more perplexing when one looks at the enlightened visions and generous contributions your small country has made towards global peace and sustainable development in recent years. In this connection I would mention the Educate-A-Child program funded by Qatar. As a former senior UN official, I had witnessed the positive impact of this program in Africa and Asia. In the case of Somalia, I was part of a team that worked on one such project that was implemented by UNESCO and UNICEF several years ago. It is difficult to understand how a country capable of showing such generosity suddenly allows itself to be linked to what is increasingly seen as a predatory cabal and associated criminal networks hell-bent on recklessly gambling away the sovereignty of my country and the dignity of my people. How could a rational royal mind reconcile showering a child with the blessings of education and subjecting the same child to unimaginable indignities, including debilitating levels of deprivation, even starvation?
Your Highness,
This humble open letter and the howls of gut-wrenching protests it carries would not be complete without bringing to your attention the piece published by New York Times on 22 July 2019, outlining how your country has destabilized mine with guns, cash and terrorism. The reputable newspaper revealed in great and graphic details the extent to which Qatar went to wreck the fragile peace in my country. The words of Khalifa Kayed al-Muhanadi, a businessman and reportedly a confidant of yours, and your Ambassador to Somalia clearly indicate Qatar has a dirty hand in the deadly business terrorist are conducting in Somalia. If true, this seems to confirm the serious accusation your gulf rivals leveled against the State of Qatar.
Your Highness,
You have every right to stand up for and defend the sovereignty and dignity of your country and people. But you have no right to bankroll the dirty war being waged against the people of Jubaland and Somalia as a whole. The $385 million you pledged reportedly to support education, infrastructure and humanitarian needs in the country are likely to be used to underpin the machinery of intimidation, terror and oppression routinely deployed by Villa Somalia against its own people. The same applies to the 68 armored vehicles you recently shipped to Mogadishu. Clear signs of this are already evident in Jubaland. The vast arsenal and loads of ammunition the Qatar delegation promised to deliver to Villa Somalia during the Somalia Partnership Forum concluded in Mogadishu yesterday will either be used to suppress all forms of dissent or will end up in the hands of Al-Shabab.
‘Just talk to our friends from the simple people of Somalia.’
One last thing Your Highness.
In the audio recording obtained by The New York Times, your close associate, al-Muhanadi, urged your Ambassador to our country: ‘Just talk to our friends from the simple people of Somalia.’ I do not know what he means by ‘the simple people of Somalia.’  However, this statement in my opinion smacks of the medieval form of racism many ignorant Arabs display towards black people. I do not believe that al-Muhanadi and your Ambassador to Somalia represent the views and judgement of all Qataris. But I am afraid many like them might be lurking in the corridors of power in the government and state of Qatar.
Your Highness,
Please keep your guns, cash and purveyors of terror away from my country and my people. And for God’s sake also keep the wealthy racists and ignorant bigots in your midst where they belong: their enclave of choice in Qatar. Somalia has just started the process of moving out of the degrading and deeply humiliating legacy of a failed state. Its Provisional Constitution (PC) is in disarray and highly contested. Its institutions are fragile and extremely vulnerable to infiltration, destabilization, corruption, and even takeover by internal usurpers and/or external predators. We do not need al-Muhanadi and people like him.
May the peace and blessings of God be upon you.
Prof. Hassan Keynan is a retired former senior UN Official who worked in Africa, Asia and Europe
keynanhassan@yahoo.com

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