SOMALIA IS LED BY A ROGUE GOVERNMENT BANKROLLED BY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY: Somaliland is gone, Puntland is considering confederation, and Jubbaland is weighing its options

Hassan Keynan


This video features two former presidents. Sheikh Sharif (2009-2012) was the one who appointed the current President as prime minister in 2010. Hassan Sh. Mohamud (2012-2017) was the one who handed power over to the current President in February 2017.


The two former presidents spoke about dark clouds of strife and conflict closing in on Somalia. They pointed to a series of unconstitutional and egregious transgressions committed by the top leadership of the Federal Government. They warned about serious and potentially calamitous consequences that could hit the country if Villa Somalia’ s dangerous dispositions and reckless actions are not confronted with utmost urgency.
Below is a summary of the key points underlined by the two former presidents,
1. The international community seems on course to wreck the hard-won and fragile peace in Somalia mainly because of its unconditional support for the divisive and reckless policies of the Somali President.
2. The Federal Government and its top leadership have for all intent and purpose suspended the constitution  and basically set up a shadow government and para military forces that operate outside the constitution and constitutionally mandated institutions. In short, President Farmaajo is leading a rogue government.
3. Our country has been deeply divided. We were concerned about the issue of Somaliland and we have been struggling to resolve this matter peacefully. However, President Farmaajo is on course to force Puntland and Jubaland to consider either confederation or even secession.
4. The level of oppression and tyranny perpetrated by President Farmaajo has become intolerable and must be resisted. ‘We can no longer remain silent,’ lamented Sheikh Sharif.
5. Members of the Council of Ministers have been reduced  to obedient and loyal servants of the President and have completely abandoned their constitutional responsibilities. None could even raise a finger or a voice about the egregious assaults on the Constitution and the unity and sovereignty of the country committed by Villa Somalia and its political hacks frequently and shamelessly.
6. Villa Somalia is denying Somalis their basic rights a and freedoms and this reckless behavior could drive some Somalis to seek alliance with external actors. This is a very dangerous development. And we must not remain silent about this grave matter.
I have never been a fan of Sheikh Sharif and Hassan Sheikh. Much of the tragedy blighting Somalia presently could be linked to mistakes and serious errors of judgment they made when they were in power. However, today they stood up and stood their ground passionately and courageously. The words spoken by the two former presidents display certain qualities attributed to statesmen. Every Somali must hear the alarm bells and the clarion call sounded by the two leaders.
The International Community has spectacularly failed in Somalia and betrayed the Somali people frequently and shamelessly. Informed and patriotic Somalis must not waste time appealing to the accursed and malignly incompetent UN and the IC.
May God save and bless beautiful Somalia.

Prof. Hassan Keynan is a retired senior UN official who worked in South Asia, Africa and Europe
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A beautiful tyranny misnamed partnership

A beautiful tyranny misnamed partnership

The relationship
To which we are wedded
Is a beautiful tyranny
Misnamed partnership.
Our partnership
Is a partnership of unequal partners
Of unequal powers and unequal opportunities
A partnership honeycombed
With labyrinths of genteel deception, division and exclusion.
In our partnership
One party represents
An imperial order of unprecedented sway and intrigue
Into whose hegemonic bosom
The other is conveniently entombed.
In our partnership
One party is the source, centre and symbol
Of all knowledge, civilisation and salvation
The other a mere consumer
Of high culture and QUIPs[1].
We are stakeholders in a bizarre covenant
That folds enslavement
In intoxicating benevolence and grace
Our partnership is afflicted with saintly inhumanity.
In the cold mathematics of our partnership
Our partnership is our destiny.
Amen.
© 1995 Hassan Keynan
Oslo Norway
Keynan, Hassan, (1995). A tyranny misnamed partnership. First published in: Brock Utne, Birgit, 2000: Whose Education for All? The Re-colonisation of the African mind? New York/London: Falmer Press.

    [1] Quick impact projects.

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State of Literacy in Sub-Saharan Africa

The International Literacy Day (ILD) is marked each year on 8 September as a day of reflection, re-thinking and re-imagination on matters related to literacy at all levels, global, regional, national, and local. On the occasion of the 2019 ILD, it is important to take stock of the state of literacy in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). As a region, SSA has been saddled with multiple and complex challenges when it comes to the field of literacy. 
Sub-Saharan Africa has one-seventh of the world population. Yet it accounts for over a quarter of illiterate adults and nearly half of illiterate youth worldwide. According to the latest available data (2015) SSA is home to 203.4 million adults (15 years and above) who lack basic literacy skills. The data also indicates that SSA had not been part of the impressive improvements in literacy rates recorded by most countries in all other regions between 1990 and 2015. In fact, the number of illiterate adults in SSA rose steadily, increasing from 142 million in 1990 to 166 million in 2000, a 17% increase. By 2015, an additional 37.2 million, a 22.4% increase, had been added to the teeming illiterate population.
Statistics pertaining to youth literacy has been particularly worrisome. Nearly 50% of the illiterate youth worldwide hail from SSA. What is more, the number of young Africans lacking basic literacy skills has been increasing since 1990, the only region in the world saddled with this peculiar affliction. Ironically, the illiterate population in SSA is concentrated in a few countries, including some of the biggest (in terms of population) and richest countries in the region. SSA also lags behind other regions in key indicators pertaining to quality and equity. Disparities based on gender, location and income have been endemic, deep and persistent, with the poor, girls, women and those in remote rural areas being disproportionately disadvantaged. Girls and women account for over two-thirds of the 203 million illiterate adults in SSA. Some countries do no even feature in regional and global data on literacy. These include countries like Djibouti, South Sudan, and Somalia and to some extent Democratic Republic of Congo. Most of the countries in this category are blighted by protracted social strife and violent conflicts.

Economic and Social Cost of Illiteracy

The economic and social cost of illiteracy is huge, corrosive, and immensely debilitating. Its destructive impacts are wide and far-reaching, cutting across all critical sectors of development.
Economic and Social Cost of Illiteracy
Economic
Lost earnings and limited employability
Lost business productivity
Lost wealth creation opportunities
Lower technology skills capacity
Social
Poor health, poor quality of life & rising health costs
Crime, including massive upshot in juvenile delinquency
Increased & disabling dependency on welfare & charity
Rapid increase of out-of-school children, drop-outs, gender-based inequality
Source: World Literacy Foundation (2015)
Two more recent, ominous and heavily consequential afflictions could also be linked to the high cost of illiteracy: youth radicalization and extremism and the tragic specter of African youth heading to Europe in droves, putting their safety and life in great danger in the perilous journey across the Sahara or in the treacherous waters of the Mediterranean Sea.
The World Literacy Foundation (WLF) estimates the annual cost of illiteracy to the global economy at $1.2 trillion. At the national level, aggregate figures vary greatly, depending on a wide range of factors. A developing country on average looses 0.5% of its GDP yearly due to illiteracy. This will translate to the following estimated annual losses for Angola ($500 million), Sudan ($381 million), Tanzania ($250 million), and Ethiopia ($288 million). Data is not available for Nigeria and D R of Congo. The WLF underscores that these estimates are quite conservative, and the actual cost of illiteracy is likely to be much higher.

Future Prospects

SSA’s prospect for achieving significant gains or a quick turn-around in youth and adult literacy any time soon is equally challenging. African governments have committed themselves to the Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and its ambitious and ubiquitous 17 goals. Africa has also adopted its own, region-specific Agenda 2063 the Africa We Want. Both frameworks envisage and promise a radically different future in the coming twelve years, a future free of the epidemic of multiple and lethal afflictions bedeviling the world we live in today. And last year, African leaders secured a three-year $60 billion funding pledge from China for the continent’s development during the 2018 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). Unfortunately, education, specially adult literacy, does not seem to matter much in the three grand development schemes both in terms of priority hierarchy and actual resource/investment portfolio.
However, given the region’s track record during the Education for All (EFA) and Millennium Development Goals (MDGS) era, SSA’s capacity and readiness to meet the 2030 SDG and Agenda 63 literacy targets fully and timely are, at best, limited. According to UNESCO, due to a host of formidable challenges specific to it, Sub-Saharan Africa “cannot be expected to reach universal youth literacy rates by 2030 if current trends continue.” Ensuring that “current trends” do NOT continue is therefore a matter of utmost priority and urgency and an important first step towards a comprehensive review and substantive improvement of the bleak literacy landscape in SSA.
The prospects of any country managing a meaningful, inclusive and sustainable economic takeoff any time soon are flimsy, given the debilitating levels of adult and youth literacy currently afflicting the continent. There is not any definitive historical precedent. This does not mean that the challenges of illiteracy are insurmountable. However, the promise of quality literacy for all Africans will continue to remain elusive if existing development architecture in the continent does not change, soon.

Suggestions for Re-vitalizing the State of Literacy in SSA

Mobilizing higher education assets and capabilities: The potential of higher education institutions in Africa to serve as a critical vehicle for economic and social transformation has been recognized. More importantly, many countries in SSA have huge and well-established higher education systems, including a large number of universities. In some countries, there are myriad higher education institutions in each region, and even at district level. Most are public institutions that receive their funding from state coffers.
The higher education systems in SSA constitute a huge repertoire of assets, capabilities, and networks that could play a critical role in moving the literacy agenda forward. The resources that could be mobilized and deployed in support of adult and youth literacy and basic skills, include the following:
§  Physical infrastructure: lecture rooms, conference halls, theatres, recreational facilities, hostels, prayer facilities.
§   Human Resources: academic staff with a wide range of knowledge and specialized technical expertise, students, alumni.
§   Research: expertise in both basic and applied research, and elaborate research infrastructure, including libraries, teaching hospitals, extension (agriculture) facilities.
§   IT, ICT, Media, and audio-visual facilities: Many higher education institutions, especially open universities, have extensive and expansive communication, media, and audio/visual facilities and networks with capabilities to reach remote rural areas.
§  Libraries and publishing assets.
Higher education institutions also have a great deal of prestige and influence, including, intellectual and cultural capital, political clout, good offices, and extensive network of prominent and influential figures or patrons. These assets bestow on universities an enormous power to mobilize political commitment and financial resources, coupled with a huge potential to influence public opinion and policy debate and dialogue.
Historically this great potential has not been adequately tapped and effectively deployed in connection with the critical issues of youth adult literacy and basic skills. Of course, not all is well with the higher education landscape in SSA. The myriad, persistent and complex challenges confronting the sector are known and well documented. At the same time, it would be a mistake to underestimate, ignore, or dismiss existing opportunities.
Curbing corruption and Embezzlement: The scourge of corruption and embezzlement has robbed African children of their rights and futures. An international cabal comprising internal usurpers and external predators has stolen African resources on an unprecedented scale. The numbers involved are truly staggering. In one country in which I worked, ‘big thieves’ eat up an estimated 60 percent of the education funds allocated annually by the state right away. Another 20 percent is divided among ‘small thieves.’ This means only 20 percent of the yearly education budget goes to the education system. This is however dwarfed by the massive looting by multinational corporations and associated shady networks. The business of plundering domestic resources and at the same time perpetually lobbying and begging for international aid is not sustainable. This must stop. Now. The future of Africa and its teeming youth depend on this.
Harnessing ICT technologies and innovations: With the rapid and profoundly transformative developments and innovations in ICTs, the minimum required literacy threshold could be achieved easier, faster and cheaper than any other time in history. However, this requires enlightened leadership supported by informed policy formulators and committed and competent technical experts. Higher education institutions could play a critical role in this endeavor. There is evidence of some good beginnings in some parts of Africa. It is important to build on these positive developments and move quicker and on a bigger scale if Africa is to achieve the ambitious literacy targets outlined in SDGs and Agenda 2063. Time is NOT on Africa’s side.

Professor Hassan KEYNAN is a former Senior UNESCO Education expert in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia and the UNESCO Institute for Lifelong Learning (UIL) in Hamburg, Germany).

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The Case of Citizen Qalbidhagax Exposed the True Nature and Character of Farmaajo’s Council of Ministers

Hassan Keynan


Two years ago, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) kidnapped citizen Qalbidhagax from a hotel and handed him over to the TPLF thugs in an egregious extraordinary rendition that infuriated all decent and patriotic Somalis.

On 6 September 2017 members of President Farmaajo’s Council of Ministers were herded into an urgent meeting by the Prime Minister and in a matter of hours charged citizen Qalbidhagax with fabricated crimes, stripped him of his nationality, robbed him of his dignity and humanity, and violated his God-given inalienable rights and freedoms. The Council of Ministers comprises a large number of people with immense variations in background, age, education, profession, and outlook. Most of them are diaspora Somalis with dual citizenship. 
Yet, almost all of them had no qualms associating themselves with the ugliest crime perpetrated against an innocent citizen in the history of Somali state and government. The Constitution and the law of the land did not restrain them. Their duties and responsibilities as senior ministers did not prompt them to exercise caution and discretion.  Nationalist principles and patriotic sentiments did not inspire them to spare the life of a patriotic citizen who scarified a lot for the defense of the motherland. Customary laws and kinship did not cause them to reflect and reconsider. Islamic ethos and fear of God did not inspire any sympathy in them for a fellow Muslim who had been humiliated and betrayed. And finally, the overarching and universally shared values of humanity did not moderate their mean and inherently malign considerations. Members of the Council of Ministers kidnapped citizen Qalbidhagax. They convicted him. They surrendered him to the executioner. Only one Minister objected. Two remained silent.
The tragic spectacle of the then Minister of Information reading out, loudly and awkwardly, the murderous lies and slander authored by the shameful Ministers had become woven into the national narrative.
In November 2017 the Federal Parliament passed a resolution declaring that the arrest and secret rendition of Citizen Qalbidhagax was illegal and unlawful, and a blatant violation of the laws of the country and the Constitution.
Today, 28 August 2019, marks the second anniversary of Citizen Qalbidhagax’s rendition to the TPLF murderers. Questions still remain as to what had prompted President Farmaajo, Prime Minister Khaire and the entire Council of Ministers to commit such egregious crime. What has President Farmaajo gained from it? Has he learned anything from it? Why hasn’t he apologized to date? One thing is for sure. The case of Citizen Qalbidhagax has sealed the fate of President Farmaajo’s Administration, and that of his legacy.
keynanhassan@yahoo.com
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Garbaduubkii Muwaadin Qalbidhagax: Laba Sano ayaa ka soo wareegay, welina Garsoor ma helin lagamana Garaabin

Maanta, 28 Agoosto 2019, waa sanadguuradii 2aad ee Garbaduubkii Muwadin Qalbidhagax. Laakiin dhacdadaa naadirka ahayd saskii laga qaaday iyo mahadhooyinkay reebtay weli way ku taagan yihiin dadka Soomaaliyeed. Qisada Qalbidhagax waxay noqotay mid ka gudawayn kana shishaysa duruufaha iyo waayaha hal muwaaddin. Waxay u xuubsiibatay qaddiyad ummadeed oo ku guntan dareenka, quluubta iyo waayaha danwadaagta qaranka Soomaaliyeed. Sidaa darted waa lagama marmaan in la xuso wixii dhacay laba sano ka hor, la is xusuusiyo in qisada muwaadin Qalbidhagax ay tahay sheeko qaran oo guri walba iyo gole walba khusaysa, la is kana waraysto su’aalaha weli ka oogan.

Garbaduubkii iyo dhiibistii muwaadin Qalbidhagax

Madaxwayne Farmaajo, RW Kheyre, ku-xigeenkiisa ayaa 23kii Agoosto 2017 amray gawracato iyaga u adeega inay soo garbaduubaan muwadin Qalbidhagax isagoo ku sugan hoteel uu ka dagganaa magaalada Gaalkacyo. Dayuurad khaas ah ayaa Muqdisho lagu keenya saddex maalmood ka dib, isagoo jeebaysan oo macawis iyo garan qaba. 28dii Agoosto ayaa godkii lagu hayay oo madaxtooyada ku garab yaalla laga soo saaray. ‘War ninka indhaha ka xira, war ninka indhaha ka xira,’ ayuu amar ku bixiyay taliyihii hawsha maamualayay. Isagoo indhaha ka xidhan ayaa garoonaka caalamiga ah ee Adan Cadde la geeyay waxaan loo gacan galiyay ciidamo Itoobiyaan oo markiiba u duuliyay Baydhaba dabeedna Godey, Dire Dawa, Debra Zeit, ugu dambayna Addis Ababa.

Gawricii iyo nolol xabaalkii muwaadin Qalbidhagax

Hadday 28kii Agoosto ahayd maalin daran oo ay ummadda Soomaaliyeed sas ba’an ka qaadeen, 6dii Siteember ayaa noqotay maalin ka sii daran. Waa maalintii Golaha Wasiirrada shir aan caadi ahayn oo degdega loogu yeedhay ayna soo sareen go’aannadii beenta iyo dhagarta badnaa ee ay sida fudud oo durdurada ah ugu nolol xabaaleen muwaadinkii toban maalmood ka hor u garbaduubeen Itoobiya. Saacad gudaheed ayay muwaadin Qalbidhagax uga xayuubiyay astaamaha, xuquuqaha iyo hiddaha saldhigga u ah jiritaanka iyo karaamada waddaniga: isir, xorriyo, qaran, magac, amni, caddaalad. Tirada intaa le’eg miisaankaana leh ayaan u kala hadhin waxna aan iska waydiin jariimadan. Dastuurka iyo shurrucda dalka iyo dawladda ma xakamayn waxay ku faleen muwaadinka. Xilka iyo waajibaadka wasiir walba saaran kuma tixgalin. Masiir qarannimo uguma gurman. Isir iyo magac Soomaaliyeed uguma hiilin. Xeer iyo tolnimo ugama xishoon. Islaannimo iyo Alla ka cabsi ugama dhawrsan. Dareen baniiaadamna uguma damqan. Iyagaa soo xidhay, iyagaa  maxkamadeeyay, iyagaana daldalaad ku riday. Hal wasiirad, Dr. Maryan Qasim, ayaa ka hortimid aadna uga gilgilatay garbaduubkii muwaadin Qalbidhagax. Labana wasiirna way ka aamuseen.

Kacdoonkii ka dhashay garbaduubkii muwaadin Qalbidhagax

28 kii Agoosto iyo 6dii Siteembar 2017 waxay ahaayeen kuwo taariikhda qaranka Soomaaliyeed ugu xusan maalmo madaw, maalmo ceebeed. Ummaddii Soomaaliyeed waxaa ku dhacay sas, argaggax iyo jahawareer. Waxaa ku habsaday masiibo ku noqotay filan waa, qaadan waa. Xeer iyo xudduud kasta oo lagu asturnaa waa lakala tuuray. Xadgudubka baaxadda leh in lagula kaco qof muwaadin ah, Caasimaddii qarankana laga abaabulo lagana fuliyo, xukuumad Soomaaliyeedna ay horseed ka tahay waxay noqotay dhacdo dhabannohays iyo mahadho ku reebtay Soomaalida. Arrintan waxay damaqday dareenka, xasaasiyaadka, iyo hiddaha walaaleeyay oo mideeyay isirka Soomaalida, kana dhigay danwadaag iyo qaran leh magac, dano, saado, iyo masiir aan kala go’in, kala qaybsamin, kalana maarmin. Boqollaal kun oo dalka iyo dunida dacalladeed kala jooga ayaa mar qudha ka kacay kana gilgishay, cod dheer iyo ficilba, gabboodfalka iyo ihaanooyinka ay xukuumd Soomaaliyeed kula kacday muwaadin Soomaaliyeed. Malaayin ayaa dareenkooda ku muujiyay xamaasad iyo taageero niyadda ah. Bannaan baxyo, doodo, shirar, maqaallo, waraysiyo, muxaadarooyin, iyo farriimo iyo xogo goos goos ah oo qabsaday mareegaha internetka iyo baraha bulshada ayaa si isdaba jooga oo qiiro leh u dhacay. Malaayiin Soomaali ah aan hore u maqal magaca muwaadin Qalbidhagax ayaa isku bartay kuna baraarugay qaddiyadda Qalbidhagax. Qaddiyadda muwaadin Qalbidhagax waxay kicisay mowjado iyo shucuur wadaninimo iyo dareen qarannim oo aan dhawaan lagu arag waayaha Soomaaliyeed. Xukuumadda Madaxwayne Farmaajona waxay ku wayday kalsoonidii iyo taageeradii shacabka.

Go’aammadii iyo jawaabihii Xukuumadda Madaxwayne Farmaajo

Dhaqanka iyo dabeecadaha lagu bartay Madxwayne Farmaajo iyo xukuumaddisu waxay ku salaysan yihiin ismoogaysiin, aamusnaan, been, dafiraad, raadgadsho, dabamaryayn, sir, dhagar, musuqmaasuq, hawgallo qarsoodi ah, abaabul iyo maalgalin kooxo dacaayad iyo barabagaan afuufa, isla wayni, awood sheegasho, iyo xadgudubyo ka dhan ah dastuurka iyo shuruucda dalka. Xukuumadda Farmaajo Garbaduubka muwaadin Qalbidahagax waxay u abaabushay una fulisay si qarsoodi. Markii la waydiiyay way dafirtay. Markay odayaal iyo waxgarad Soomaaliyeed u tageen Farmaajo kana codsadeen inaan Muwaadin Qalbidhagax loo dhiibin Itoobiya, wuu meermeeriyay ugu dambayntiina been ayuu u sheegay. Markay Itoobiyay qarxisay sirtoodi, Farmaajo iyo Khaire waxay maleegeen shirqookii 6dii Siteembar. Dembi ay galeen koox yar ayaa loo rogay mu’aamaro iyo dakane ay ka dambeeyeen xubnaha golaha wasiirrada dhammaantood. Dadaalladii baarlamaanka waxay xukuumaddu ku bixisay kharash badan si ay u kala daadiso, iyadoo adeegsanaysa xubno kamida baarlamaanka oo ay gacan saar hoose leeyihiin.
Go’aannaddi taariikhiga ahaa ee barlamaanka Farmaajo iyo Khaire waxay la wajaheen cadho, kibir iyo isla wayni. Waxaa la aaminsan yahay dagaalkii lagu qaaday Guddoomiye Jawaari lagagana takhalusay inay abaabushay xukuumadda oo weli ka cadhaysan go’aankii baarlamaanku ka gaadhay kiiskii muwaadin Qalabidhagax. Kacdoonkii iyo gilgilashadii bulshada Soomaaliyeed dhagaha ayay ka furaysteen, isla markaana waxay hoosta ka abaabuleen kooxo kira ah oo faafiya been iyo dacaayado rakhiis ah. Markii Qalbidhagax la soo daayay oo uu xorriyaddiisi dib u helyay 28 kii Juun 2018, waxaa magaca xukuumadda Soomaaliya ku hadlay safiirka Itoobiya u fadhiya Muqdisho, isagoo sheegay in dawladda Soomaaliya ay kala hadashay Itoobiya siidaynta Qalbidhagax.

Su’aalaha Weli Taagan

Hase yeeshee Madaxwayne Farmaajo iyo xukuumaddiisa weli lagama hayo waxay ka mudnaayeen iyo jawaabihii ay ka sugayeen ummaadda Soomaaliyeed. Maxaa ku kallifay inay muwaaddin Soomaaliyeed gabboodfalka iyo ihaanada intaa le’eg kula kacaan? Maxay xukuumaddu ugu hoggaansami la’dahay dastuurka iyo shuruucda dalka? Maxay u dhayalsanaysaa dhawaaqa iyo dareenka waadaniyiinta? Maxay xukuumaddu uga garaabi la’dahay haddii uu gef dhacay?  Madaxwayne Farmaajo ha xusuusnaado inaanay dhacayn in la illoobo qaddiyadan. Waxaa looga fadhiyaa inuu shacabkiisa hor yimaaddo oo uu ka garaabo wixii dhacay. Taasaa ku filan dadka intiisa badan. Weli waqti ayuu haystaa.
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UN Track-record in Somalia: A legacy of missed opportunities and malign incompetence

Prof. Hassan Keynan
Prompted into existence by the carnage of World War Two, the United Nations System has been informed by lofty ideals, beautiful mandates, and noble missions aimed at promoting international peace and security. Over the past seven decades its size, mandate and operations have been considerably expanded. Peace-keeping, sustainable development, and climate change have become some of the key priorities highlighted and underscored in the UN’s current programs and funds.
Predictably, noble ideals and enlightened visions have remained what they have always been, glorious abstractions. The task of transforming beautiful mandates into concrete results has proven much harder. There have been areas in which the UN has done commendable job. But overall the performance of the UN has fallen short of expectations. There are many reasons for this, including a number of structural flaws deeply rooted in the design and business model of the UN as well as a culture of opportunism, arrogance, and impunity displayed by some of the top leadership and senior management of the Organization. These deficiencies have been cynically exploited to build and sustain lucrative careers for a small, well-connected international expatriate class.
However, for the hundreds of millions of people and myriad nations whose peace and futures have been rudely and recklessly wrecked, the mercurial behavior and duplicitous actions of the self-serving lords of misery have been calamitous. Evidence of the litany of missed opportunities, costly blunders, catastrophic failures, criminal negligence, and ruinous legacies left behind by UN or UN-led missions across the globe can be seen in great, and at times graphic, details in countries like Bosnia, Rwanda, Cambodia, East Timor, Haiti, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, and ,of course, Somalia. In Bosnia and Rwanda, the dangerous dispositions of top UN leaders and associated partners had contributed to the genocides that were perpetrated in the two countries, i.e. the slaughter of 8000 young boys and men in Bosnia and about a million overwhelmingly Tutsi civilians. The level of obfuscation, indecision, and tragic errors of judgement displayed by the top UN leadership in Rwanda had become a dark stain on its integrity and reputation.

Failed UN Missions in Somalia: Highlights

The UN’s association with Somalia is one unequaled and probably unsurpassed in its longevity, malign incompetence, utter wastefulness, corrosive corruption, stubborn and self-serving persistence in wrong-doing, and near total impunity. It is a well-known and well-documented fact that the UN’s fiasco in Somalia in the early 1990s had been a key and heavily consequential factor in the catastrophic role it had played in the Rwandan genocide. Below are highlights of some of the UN’s myriad and inherently flawed interventions in Somalia.
1945 – 1954 Following the defeat of Fascist Italy, the geopolitical equation in the Horn of Africa was thrown into confusion with Eritrea, Italian Somaliland and the Ogaden being up for grabs, and the situation in British Somaliland and Ethiopia facing an uncertain future. The fate of the Horn countries was placed in the hands of the victorious powers – the US, what was the Soviet Union France and the Britain – and the then infant United Nations. The UN messed up the process of managing the disposal former Italian colonies of Eritrea and Southern Somalia. The protracted conflicts that have blighted and bankrupted the countries of the region for nearly half a century can be largely attributed to the manner in which the future of former Italian colonies had been handled. And a big junk of the blame could be directed, quite rightly, at the UN.
The Trusteeship period (1950-1960): Between 1950 and 1960 Italian Somaliland was placed under a UN trusteeship regime with Italy as administering authority, a process in which the US was heavily involved. The fate of Somalia even featured in the 1948 US presidential election, mainly because one of the candidates supported Italy’s campaign to return to Somalia to woo the Italian vote. The experiment, which was essentially an international project in nation-building, turned out to be an ill-conceived and costly experiment. The UN Trusteeship Administration even failed to perform one of its basic duties: demarcation of the borders of Italian Somalia, especially the long border between Southern Somalia and Ethiopia. This border still remains a provisional and heavily contested one, and has been a principal source of conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia. The UN also bungled the process that led to the unification of the British Protectorate of Somaliland and the Trusteeship Territory (former Italian Somaliland) it presided over. This dereliction of duty on the part of the UN in the late 1950s, the disintegration and eventual collapse of Somali state in 1991, and the subsequent re-emergence of Somaliland as an independent state are inseparably linked.
UNOSOM I & II (1992-1993): The United Nations Operation in Somalia (UNOSOM I & II) was initially envisaged and deployed as a mission of peace and mercy, with abundant goodwill and a groundswell of support from the international community led by the sole global super power.  But it soon metamorphosed into something bigger and more sinister, leading to a precipitous change of mandate under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. Within a matter of two years, things fell apart. The international consensus and cooperation that established and sustained UNOSOM collapsed. During the following decades, Somalia had plunged into a suspended dystopian state, earning it the notorious but well-deserved reputation of being the first and most enduring failed state.
UNSOM (2013-present): The UN returned to Somalia in 2013 under the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM). This time around it has come back with a pang, a bigger profile, and a bolder mandate. UNSOM coincided with the birth of the first internationally recognized Somali Government in over two decades, a new and potentially hopeful development brokered and backed by the US and UK. The mandate of UNSOM encompasses a wide and immensely diverse range of functions, including “provision of policy advice on peace-building and state-building, development of a federal system, constitutional review, democratization, and coordination of international donor support.” To implement this mandate, the UN appointed high-profile, career diplomats (British 2, South African 1, American 1) to serve as Special Representatives of the Secretary-General for Somalia (SRSG) and Heads of UNSOM, and deployed 22 UN agencies. More importantly, UNSOM together with its partner, AMISOM, received and consumed billions of dollars.
However, after six years and nearly over ten billion dollars, UNSOM has gone the way of its predecessors: making huge promises, consuming billions of dollars, and delivering little. Peace-building and state-building efforts stagnated and, in some places, regressed. The Provisional Constitution seems to be frozen, even fossilized, in a permanent state of incompletion, although millions of dollars have been mobilized and spent to fix it. The development of the federal system has hit a snag, mainly because the Mogadishu-based Federal Government has been vehemently opposed to it, and has done everything in its power to undermine the federalist project. And UNSOM whose mandate includes support for the implementation of the federal system seems unable or unwilling to commit itself to fulfilling one of the strategic goals of its mission and work plan in Somalia. The long-standing issue of Somalilandremains unresolved, even seemingly unresolvable. Puntland seems to be dancing on the horns of a terrible dilemma: to be or not to be part of Somalia. Southwest’s prospect for consolidating its credentials as a fully developed federal member state has been arrogantly and violently shattered by Mogadishu. And when the SRSG, Mr. Nicholas Haysom, tried to intervene and hold Mogadishu accountable, he was threatened and declared persona non grata. Concerned for the safety of his representative, the UN Secretary-General was forced to take Mr. Haysom back. HirShabelle has been reduced to a vassal entity perpetually beholden to and at the mercy of its tormentors in Villa Somalia. The State of Galmudug has been subjected to a protracted and nasty campaign of destabilization and perversion, causing the infant and fragile regional government to disintegrate and ultimately collapse. Presently, Galmudug is without a leader, without a parliament, without a government, and without peace.

 Wrecking the Peace and Stability in Jubbaland

The UN seems to be on course to preside over its latest and arguably most reckless act of incompetence yet in its long and tortuous tenure in Somalia: wrecking the hard-won peace and stability of the last standing federal member state, Jubbaland, and in the process contributing to the dismantling of the constitutionally mandated federal system of government. And the current SRSG, Mr. James Swan, stands accused of actively assisting Villa Somalia’s brazen attempts to meddle in the parliamentary and presidential elections in Jubbaland. Villa Somalia’s intention is clear: to reduce Jubbaland to the messy state of affairs currently prevailing in Southwest and Galmudug, the former a vassal state the latter a hollowed headless, rudderless and conflict-ridden administration.
What is not clear is what has prompted Mr. Swan to allow himself to be caught up in the serious and potentially calamitous developments currently unfolding in Jubbaland. James Swan, was appointed on 30 May 2019. He has been in office for less than three months. He is a highly experienced diplomat with a long international career, including a number of postings in Africa. Between 2006 and 2008 he worked in the US Government as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Africa. So, what has gone wrong? Is there substance into the serious offences he stands accused of?
To be fair to the new SRSG, the tensions between the Federal Government and Federal Member States (FMS) have existed long before Mr. Swan began his work in Somalia. However, there are credible indications that the newly installed SRSG, has jumped into the complex and messy Somali political landscape with little preparation and plenty of arrogance and self-serving opportunism. And in the case of Jubbaland, Mr. Swan has displayed a great deal of ignorance and incompetence laced with a heavy and intoxicating dose of duplicity and hypocrisy. The following points explain why the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia, Mr. James Swan, has indeed committed the serious offences he stands accused of.
1.    Failure to uphold the cardinal principles of neutrality and consensus that define and underpin the UN. The series of letters Mr. Swan wrote, in quick and hasty succession, to the Jubbaland Independent Boundaries and Electoral Commission (JIBEC) in mid-August bear testimony to Mr. Swan’s provocative and undiplomatic transgressions. His letter of 17 August 2019 was particularly over the top and uncalled for. He blatantly misrepresented and distorted the facts and events pertaining to the elections underway in Jubbaland. What is more, Mr. Swan issued what appeared to be an imperial directive threatening that the international community would not recognize the outcome of the elections in Jubbaland. JIBEC’s Chairman acted more maturely and more constructively, and was absolutely right in demanding, in his letter of 18 August, that Mr. Swan apologize to the people of Jubbaland. Mr. Swan’s letter was drafted and dispatched, with astonishing haste, on Saturday and under dubious circumstances. He has not consulted all relevant stakeholders on whose behalf he claimed to speak. This has prompted the Government of Kenya, a key AMISOM stakeholder, to strongly object to the contents of Mr. Swan’s 17 August letter, and to demand its immediate withdrawal.
2.  Preoccupation with the fate of his predecessor, Mr. Nicholas Haysom, who was declared persona non grata and expelled from the country by President Farmaajo. Mr. Haysom’s sin was that he called for accountability following Villa Somalia’s unconstitutional and violent intervention in the elections in the Southwest. Mr. Swan seems to have put his career before principle and duty. Fear of being expelled seems to paralyze him and condition his actions and behavior.
3.    Collusion with Villa Somalia’s deeply partisan and immensely destabilizing stance as well as the hidden agenda harbored by certain regional actors with vested strategic interests in Somalia. Mr. Swan has allegedly become a partisan ally of President Farmaajo and his backers.
4.  Failure to fully understand the history, geography, and demography of Jubbaland. Jubbaland has a lot in common with other Federal Member States. At the same time, it has specific particularities that are peculiar to it.
5.    Failure to appropriately supervise and monitor the role and activities of UN agencies in Somalia. There are reports of some UN projects and programs being used as a political weapon by the Federal Government to put pressure on and marginalize Federal Member States seen or labelled as enemies of Villa Somalia. In the case of Jubbaland there is evidence of such practice involving specific UN agencies and their Federal counterparts. Incompetence and the scourge of corruption are also evident in the work of many UN agencies in Somalia.
6.    Failure to assess and report the sinister role played by Qatar and its corrosive and destructive impact on peace-building and state-building efforts underway in Somalia under the leadership of UNSOM.
7.  Failure to adequately understand and properly assess the complex and messy geopolitical equation in the Horn of Africa, specially the perennial Somali conundrum that lies at the heart of the region. Mr. Swan came to Somalia awfully under-prepared.
8.    Failure to understand and learn lessons from the missed opportunities and malign incompetence that characterized almost all previous UN interventions in Somalia during the past seven decades.
In his capacity as the SRSG and Head of UNSOM, Mr. James Swan wields a great deal of power and influence.  He also has the authority to exercise them in the service of peace and meaningful reconciliation in Somalia in accordance with the UN principles and the terms of his employment. Unfortunately, Mr. Swan seems to have acted and behaved in a manner that violates the UN’s fundamental principles and established protocols. His letters to the JIBEC contained exaggerated accounts combined with unsubstantiated allegations and blatant misrepresentations that have become a propaganda and recruiting bonanza for the purveyors of conflict and extremism and their associated networks of dissolution, including Al-Shabab. And the ugly demons unleashed by Mr. Swan are already at work, wrecking the fragile and hard-won peace and stability in Jubbaland. He has betrayed the UN, the international community, and, most importantly, the vulnerable and traumatized people of Somalia. He ought to be personally held accountable for the consequences of his actions and transgressions.
Prof. Hassan Keynan is a retired senior UN official who worked in South Asia, Africa and Europe

keynanhassan@yahoo.com

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THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND DESTRUCTIVE CLAN IN THE SOMALI REGIONAL STATE (SRS)

Hassan Keynan

Stories of inter- and intra-clan clashes abound in the SRS. The dispute is over territory and land. And often the dispute quickly metamorphoses into a bloody conflict, resulting in deaths and serious injuries. And the SRS’s security forces are routinely called to intervene and sort out the bloody mess.

However, there is one specific clan which is taking over the whole region. It is the largest, most powerful and deadliest expansionist force in the SRS. The name of this clan is GARANWAA in Somali, which roughly means UNKNOWN.

GRANWAA is aggressive, invasive, insidious, intrusive and inherently brutal. This colonial monster does not respect boundaries, regulations, environmental ethos, and customary traditions. It does not care about laws of war and Geneva Convention. It does not take prisoners. It extensively uses torture and enhanced and extreme interrogation and occupation techniques.

No clan dares challenge the Garanwaa aggressor. And the Government is till figuring out the origins and genealogy of this alien clan. Powerful clans who decimate each other over a piece of barren territory seem impotent to raise a finger against the  new colonial master who is threatening their land, lives and livelihoods with total impunity.

Tol la’y. War nimanka duullaanka ah ee tuutaha cagaaran xidhan iska dhiciya.

hassankeynan@yahoo.com

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Mutually Assured Delusion (MAD): A Cynical Ploy Employed by the Somali Political Elite

Hassan Keynan

For nearly thirty years, Somalia has existed in a suspended dystopian space outside the state-based system that defines and governs existing global order, earning it the notorious but well-deserved reputation of being the first and most enduring failed state. The reasons for this calamitous state of affairs are multiple, complex, and immensely variegated. However, none has probably been more potent and more consequential than what can be described as Mutually Assured Delusion (MAD). Simply stated, MAD refers to a deliberate and inherently duplicitous strategy to base all political negotiations and power-sharing formulas on clan affiliation and at the same time vehemently deny and denounce even the mere mentioning of clan identity in national politics. Everyone does it. Everyone knows it.  Yet all deny its existence and efficacy. Hence the phrase Mutually Assured Delusion (MAD).

MAD is madness in the form of a cynical strategy invented and effectively deployed by the Somali political elite to confuse and mislead both Somalis and foreigners alike about the truth of what has being going on in Somalia. All previous Somali governments had used it. MAD had been elevated to a bizarre spectacle during the military regime when effigies of the monster clan were burned or buried in well-choreographed public events. However, it has reached its ugliest summit in post-1991 Somalia, especially following the catastrophic Arta Conference in 2000 and the adoption of the notorious 4.5 formula as an official mechanism for power sharing among Somali clan families. Under Farmaajo and Khaire, MAD has evolved into a lethal national affliction. Detailed, open, honest and rational discussion and objective analysis of sensitive intra- and inter-clan rivalries, conflicts, and grievances is discouraged even suppressed, preferring a bizarre hush-hush approach that can be described as mutually assured national exercise in self-delusion.

Many, perhaps most, of the greatest and gravest challenges that have blighted Somalia from the 1990s to this very moment can be primarily attributed to this insidious and inherently malign element in post-1991 Somali politics. In fact, the MAD arguably constitutes the principal reason decades of massive involvement and colossal investment by the international community have not yet led to genuine national reconciliation and inclusive governance framework in Somalia or demonstrable improvements in the state of peace and security in the country. Yet, this core and heavily consequential factor has rarely received the attention, serious and robust analysis, and optimum consideration and care commensurate with its weight and impact. There has instead been a tendency to ensure that the issue remains barely acknowledged, deliberately avoided, expediently glossed over, conveniently ignored, or simply swept under the carpet.

 Foreigners have been equally active and complicit in this elaborate deception, although their reasons and motivations have not always been identical with those of their Somali counter parts. The international community has been reluctant to say much about MAD for two main reasons.  The first is to show solidarity with the duplicitous stance adopted by the powerful Mogadishu-based political and business elite. The second is that the dominant regional and international actors have found this murky and messy state of affairs exceptionally useful and expedient. The result has been the proliferation and perpetuation of half-truths, ridiculous oversimplifications and omissions, deliberate distortions, and outright falsehoods about the tumultuous events unfolding in Somalia for the past three decades. This sinister scheme has made informed and accurate understanding of the crisis in Somalia immensely difficult, and, more importantly, undermined and at times torpedoed efforts aimed at restoring lasting peace and political stability in the country.

keynanhassan@yahoo.com

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The Ogaden Question: A perennial Conundrum that Preoccupied Every Ethiopian leader but None Got it Right

By Prof. Hassan Keynan
The Ogaden Question (OQ) has been a constant and powerful dynamic in the complex historical processes that convulsed Abyssinia and its successor, Ethiopia. It has occupied this sensitive and inherently radioactive space in the turbulent geopolitical equation in the Horn of Africa for six centuries, with remarkable persistence and tenacity. It has informed and underpinned the nature and evolution of the Abyssinian/Ethiopian state, profoundly shaped the character and political culture of its architects and ruling class, and heavily influenced its external relations.
 The Somali region in Ethiopia has been a heavily consequential factor in the epic struggles that convulsed the long history of the Horn Africa and profoundly influenced its convoluted and turbulent evolutionary trajectory since the 15th century. It had played a pivotal role in the colossal confrontations between the formidable Adal State – anchored in the two ancient cities of Harar (Now in Ethiopia) and Zeila (now Somaliland/Somalia), the former as its Capital – and its principal and ambitious rival in the neighborhood, imperial Abyssinia.  The unimaginable horror and savagery spawned by this tragic encounter were chronicled in great and graphic details in The Conquests of Abyssinia by Sihab ad-Din Ahmad bin ‘Abd al-Qader.
It had prominently featured in the making and mixing fortunes of modern Abyssinia/Ethiopia under Menelik II, as a persistent and enduring symbol of independence, resisting pacification and domination. This region had been a key element that informed and underpinned the rise of the great Dervish Movement that fiercely opposed the colonial scramble for the Somali Peninsula in the early 20th century, under the charismatic leadership of Sayid Mohamed Abdulle Hassan.
During the past 88 years, different rulers occupied the Ethiopian throne, with immensely variegated backgrounds, times, durations, contexts, attributes, ideologies, traditions, ethos, and fortunes: dubious hereditary monarch (Haile Selassie), revolutionary/Marxist zealot (Mengistu Haile Mariam), Ethnic chauvinist and megalomaniac tyrant masked as democrat (Meles Zenawi), and political outlier and/or straw man in the service of supremacist clique (Hailemariam Desalegn). They were different, even poles apart, in every respect imaginable. However, as products of and believers in the Abyssinian/Ethiopian hegemonic political culture, they all had one thing in common: In their perception and strategic calculus, they all saw the Ogaden Question as an existential threat to the Ethiopian State. This paranoid mindset has in turn led each and every Ethiopian leader to adopt only one strategy to deal with the Somali Question: precipitous and reckless use of military might, combined with medieval and opportunistic deployment of divide-and-rule measures. This has become the default option of Ethiopian leaders.
The 1935 invasion and occupation of Ethiopia by fascist Italy was partly provoked by the infamous Walwal Incident. The region was also an important dynamic in the liberation of Ethiopia and the restoration of Emperor Haile Selassie’s reign. During the 15 years between 1945 and 1959, Ethiopia, under Emperor Haile Selassie, had been weighed down and haunted by a raft of critical and rapidly changing regional and global developments centered around this region, including: a) the initiative by the then British Foreign Secretary, Ernest Bevin, to unite all Somali territories, b) transfer of huge swathes of this region to Ethiopian by the British in 1948 and 1954 secretly and under dubious circumstance, as well as the immediate, massive and furious reaction by Somalis, c) prospects of independence for the British protectorate of Somaliland and Italian colony in Southern Somalia, and d) the likely unification of the two territories. In addition, Ethiopia had faced myriad organized and diverse home-grown resistance movements across the region from the 1950s.
Between 1960 and 1977 Ethiopian went into three wars with Somalia, wars triggered and driven by perennial questions rooted in the Ogaden Question. The last war was the biggest and most destructive one, involving a wide range of regional and international actors, the two global super powers and their respective strategic alliances among them. In fact, the 1977-78 war had precipitously metamorphosed into a major threat to global security, prompting the US national security advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski, to frame it in the ominous phrase ‘SALT lies buried in the sands of the Ogaden.’
Those wars had exhausted, bankrupted and eventually led to simultaneous collapse of Ethiopia, under Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam, and Somalia, under General Mohamed Siyad Barre in 1991.  Ethiopia fell under the control of the EPLF and TPLF, both of which were heavily supported by Mogadishu. In fact, the leaders of the two fronts, Isaias Afwerki and the late Meles Zenawi, were both based in Mogadishu and travelled on Somali passports. Somalia has imploded and became the proverbial failed state.
The post-1991 period has been heavy with great opportunities and realistic prospects to crack this perennial question. Tragically that was not to be. The conflict erupted once again in 1994, with a level of ferocity and lethality not seen in decades. The biggest irony was that the Somali state, blamed and maligned ad infinitum as the one and only monster that created and fed the conflict in the region, was no more this time around. In fact, the TPLF-dominated Ethiopian army seized and occupied the Capital, Mogadishu, in late 2006 and has since turned Somalia into myriad mini-vassal states under its complete and ruthless control. Yet, the Somali region’s struggle not only survived but has acquired unprecedented levels of prominence, recognition and solidarity both internally and externally. By 2007, the late Prime Minister Zenawi had unleashed the might and fury of Ethiopian Defense Forces led by his TPLF comrade and Chief of Staff, Samora Yunis, on the region, committing unimaginable atrocities and collective punishment that have been included, not lightly, in the category of egregious offenses known as war crimes and crimes against humanity and at times even genocide.

Could Premier Abiy Ahmed Crack the Ogaden Question?

Dr. Abiy Ahmed was sworn in as the Prime Minister of Ethiopia on 2 April 2018. His arrival has unleashed a set of radical and broad-based reforms in a country not known for and spectacularly lacking in the foundational traditions and critical capabilities required to embark on and skillfully manage such monumental transformation. In just nine months, the Abiy phenomenon has convulsed the political land scape in Ethiopia, turned the geopolitical calculus of the Horn of Africa topsy-turvy, and re-set broader international relations.
Could PM Ahmed become the first Ethiopian leader to crack the perennial Ogaden Question? It is too early to even attempt a definitive answer to this question. However, there are myriad enabling factors that work in his favor should he decide to make optimum use of them. In fact, PM Ahmed himself is a key factor in the positive developments currently underway in Ethiopia. He is the first non-Habesha (Amhara and Tigrai) leader in Ethiopia. More importantly, PM Ahmed hails from the large Oromo nation which, like their fellow Cushitic Somalis, has been at the receiving end of centuries of brutal Abyssinian aggression and domination. Second, his family and religious background provides him with unique, out-of-the-box perspectives that are free from the hegemonic traditions, dangerous predispositions, and ruinous legacies of the Abyssinian/Ethiopian state. Third, the package of reforms PM Ahmed has initiated have already created conditions that are heavy with promise and great opportunities for just and durable peace in the Somali region.
PM Ahmed is therefore well-placed to crack the perennial Ogaden Question that all his predecessors spectacularly failed to get it right. The following points could be valuable inputs into PM Abiy Ahmed’s strategy to diffuse the manufactured crisis unfolding in the Somali Regional State (SRS), and craft a credible path forward:
Break the medieval mindset that sees Somalis as an existential threat to the Ethiopian State: This mindset and the corrosive political culture and toxic narratives that define and underpin it have not worked for all previous leaders. It is based on medieval forms of fear and prejudice and it has led to ruinous legacies of war, poverty and tyranny. It is utter madness to even contemplate its continuation. And if anyone could broker a complete and clean break from this lethal affliction, it is PM Ahmed. And the time is now.
Give full and unequivocal support to the infant Somali Regional State administration led by President Mustafa Omar: I personally know Mustafa Omar. We both worked for the UN in Nairobi Kenya before I was transferred to a new duty station in Hamburg, Germany. I believe that PM Ahmed would find in Mustafa an enthusiastic, courageous and energetic partner who could help him fast rack and consolidate the reform and transformation agenda underway in Ethiopia. It seems that there are sinister forces hell bent on undermining the fragile peace and stability in the SRS. When Mustafa was appointed six months ago, the SRS was in the throes of complete chaos and possible implosion. Today it is considered arguably as the most peaceful Regional State in Ethiopia as the Prime Minister himself reportedly acknowledged a few days ago. Allowing anti-reform forces to disrupt the hard-won peace in the SRS would be tragic and unforgivable. PM Ahmed must send a clear and unmistakable message in support of President Mustafa and his team.
Avoid return to TPLF Model of governance in the SRS: The people of the SRS have always been at the receiving end of unimaginable levels of injustice and tyranny perpetrated by the Ethiopian State. However, the TPLF has elevated the persecution of Somalis to mass incarceration and killing fields bordering on genocide. A two-decade long reign of state terror had been unleashed on the civilian population. I recently read a report by an Oromo intellectual indicating that 5000 young Oromos lost their lives during the mass uprising in the Oromia Region that erupted in 2015. The TPLF let loose the mighty TPLF-led Ethiopian Defense Forces across the Ogaden for 23 years. Tens of thousands have perished. Hundreds of thousands were subjected to rape as a weapon of war. Entire towns and villages were burned, displacing millions. Thousands were rounded up and subjected to brutal mass incarceration. The Somalis were the only ethnic group in Ethiopia for whom specific torture chambers were designed, including the notorious Jeel Ogaadeen, according to elaborate and well-documented reports by human rights organizations. The entire Somali Region is a vast crime scene.One of the murderous tactics used by the TPLF was to mobilize predatory opportunists and unscrupulous political hacks to plant toxic seeds of discord among Somalis, with a view to dividing them into dubious clan-based groupings and pitting one against another. This sinister and criminal project reached its ugly summit during the reign of Abdi Iley and his TPLF enablers and puppeteers. A return to this dark era is not an option. It is unacceptable that some EPRDF operatives and senior ministers in PM Ahmed’s cabinet openly float the prospect of bringing back known criminals into positions of power and influence in the SRS.
Work closely with ONLF: The ONLF is without a doubt the only entity that fought the TPLF regime since 1994 and paid the heaviest price in blood and treasure. Following the reforms initiated by PM Ahmed, the ONLF signed a peace agreement with Ethiopia and returned home. ONLF has over the decades established vast grassroots organizations across the Ogaden and in the diaspora. Since their return, ONLF has observed the terms of its agreement with the Ethiopian Government and worked closely with the SRS in the service of peace and reconciliation. A close cooperation with ONLF would greatly facilitate the consolidation of the fragile peace in the region, underpinning PM Ahmed’s reform agenda.

Conclusion

The history of modern Ethiopia and the broader geopolitical equation in the Horn of Africa are saddled with the ruinous legacies, ugly demons, missed opportunities, corrosive anxieties, unpredictable consequences, tragic miscalculations, colossal and costly failures, and predatory and sinister schemes spawned by or associated with the perennial Ogaden conundrum. Variations of these are evident in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia.
The Ogaden Question has arguably been Ethiopia’s biggest challenge and has proved a tough nut to crack. From Menelik to Meles, every Ethiopian leader found a lethal obsession and a messy quagmire in the vast plains of the Ogaden. None could get it right. Herein lies an historic opportunity for PM Ahmed and his government to find a just and durable solution for the perennial Ogaden Question. If successful PM Ahmed would forever be remembered for ridding Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa of centuries old affliction and the myriad ruinous legacies it has routinely spawned for decades
Hassan Keynan is a former Professor at the Somali National University and a retired Senior UN Official
Keynahassan@yahoo.com

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HOGGAANKA IYO XUKUUMADDA DAWLAD DEGAANKA SOOMAALIDA: FLANQAYN IYO TALOOYIN

Hassan Keynan

Lix bilood ayuu Madaxwayne  yahay Mudane Mustafa Maxamad Cumar. Xukuumaddiisuna intaa way ka da’ yartahay. Hase yeeshee waxaa durba dhan walba kaga imanaya hadallo iyo qoraallo diiradda saaraya hoggaamintiisa shaqsiga ah iyo wax-qabadka xukuumaddiisa. Shaki igagama jiro in dad badani ay dooddoodu ka imanayso dareen iyo aragti ugu muuqda wanaag. Qaar waxay saran yihiin baalasha xawaaraha dheer ee xamaasadda iyo caadhifada, mana aha wax lala yaabo marka aad eegto wixii la soo maray iyo waaqiciga maanta. Waxaa iyagana jira ashkhaas iyo kooxo dana gaara, intooda badanna gurracan, guntiga iyo boorsooyin kula wareegaya.
Mabda’ ahaan waa wax wanaagsan in madaxda iyo xukuumadaha la qiimeeyo lalana xisaabtamo.  Waa arrin aanu muran badan ka jirin qayb muhim ahna ka ah hal-abuurka iyo hiddaha maamul iyo tan hogaamineed ee dalalka horumar wayn ka gaadhay dawladnimada iyo dimoqraadiyadda. Laakin waxaa aad loogu kala duwan yahay habka loo wajaho qiimayntaa, ujeeddada laga leeyahay, halka ay daarran tahay, inay tahay mid xog sugan iyo  maskax furan ku salaysan, cidda dabada ka riixaysa, iyo xattaa waqtiga la samaynayo.
Haddaba siday wax u jiraan? Maxaa dhaba? Maxaa dhiman? Maxaa surra gal ah? Waxaan akhristayaasha la wadaagayaa siday wax iigu muuqdaan.

Intaan ka aqaan Madaxwayne Mustafa

Waxaan Mustafa markii iigu horraysay ku kulannay Xarunta Jamciyadda Quruumaha Middobay ee Nairobi (United Nations Office in Nairobi) halkaaso aan kawada shaqaynaynay labadnaduba 2013-2015. Waxaa ii xigay horraantii 2018 oo uu ku mashquulsana yagleelidda ururuka Isbahaysiga Caddaaladda ee Degaanka Soomaaliyeed (Somali Region Alliance for Justice –SRAJ). Waan uga mahad celinayaa inuu ila wadaagay aratiga iyo ahdaafta ururka SRAJ sidaan u arkana uu wax iga waydiiyay. Horraantii Agoosto 2018 ayaan ka warhelay in laga dhigay Madaxwaynaha Dawlada Degaanka Soomaalida. Intaa wixii ka dambeeyay wixii uu isagu ku hadlo iyo waxa laga yidhaa hogaamintiisa iyo xukuumaddisa ayaan dusha kala socday.
Dhowrkan astaamood ayaan ku soo koobayaa intaan ka aqaan Mudane Musatafa:
1.     Waa shaqsi dadaal badan oo aan ka daalin waxaa uu ku hawlan yahay. Matoor culus oo 24ka saac shidan ayaa saaran.
2.     Waa shaqsi ku dhiirran oo aan la gabban dareenkiisa, afkaartiisa, iyo waxaa uu aaminsan yahay.
3.     Waa shaqsi hankiisa siyaasadeed uu wayn yahay, meelo sarena higsanaya.
4.     Was shaqsi xiriir dhaw lala haa  Itoobiyaanka kale. Waxaan xusuustaa isagoo inta badan la socda ama la shaahaya Itoobiyaanka ka shaqaynayay Xarunta UNka Nairobi, inta bandanna af Amxaari ku sheekaysanaya. Waxaa jirtay maalin aan isku dayay inaan eray af Amxaari ah ku dhaho ruux ka mid ah dadkii ay isla shaahayeen. Intuu ii soo dhawaaday ayuu igu yidhi, “sidaa looma dhehee, saa dheh.”
Astaamahan qof ba dhan ayuu iska taagi karaan. Siyaabo kala duwanna waa loo fasiri karaa. Anigu intaba iigu muuqdaan wax qof siyaasi ah lagu dhalliili karo. Gaar ahaan arrinta ku saabsan xiriirka uu la leeyahay Itoobiyaanla af Axmaariga ku hadla, anigu waxaan u arkaa arrin muhim ah, kaalin culusna ka gali karta ciyaarta iyo loollanka siyaasadeed ee Itoobiya ka jira. Ugu dambayn, Mustafa waa aadami, waa siyaasi hanwayn, waana nin dhallinyaro ah oo aad u dhiirran. Khalad wuu gali karaa, gefna wuu ka dhici karaa. Taa aadamiga kale iyo siyaasiyiinta kale ayuu kala mid yahay.

Qiimayn hoggaanka iyo xukuumada Madaxwayne Mustafa

Qoraallada iyo hadallada ku wajahan qiimaynta Madaxwayne Mustafa iyo xukuumaddisu waxay inta badan diiradda saaraan meelo badan. Inta ugu muhimsan aan mid mid uu eegno.
Mustafa Jagada waa loo Magacaabay:  Wali waxaa jira xogo badan oo inaga dahsoon. Laakiin waa xaqiiq in Mustafa aanu jagada Madaxwaynanimda ku imaan doorasho iyo rabitaanka shacbiga dawlad Degaanka Soomaalida. Hase yeeshee, dadka Mustafa arrintan eed uga dhigaya, waxaa habboon in lala sii wado su’aalaha ee aan halkaa lagaga hadhin. Itoobiya waxay jirtay 129 sannadood. Intaan ogahay 1992dii oo keliya ayay doorashao la oran karo waa xor iyo caddaalad waddanka ka dhacday. Waa tii lagu doortay AUN Madaxwayne Cabdullaahi Sacdi. Inta kale hadba xukuumadda Addis Ababa ka jirta ayaa soo caleema saari jirtay. Haddba, sidee buu ku iman karay Madaxwayne la soo doorto, mar haddii hiddaha iyo hab-dhaqanka siyaasadeed ee Itoobiya aanu ahayn mid xorriyad iyo dimoqraadiyad ku dhisan? Miyaynu lahayn awood ku khasabta xukuumadda Addis Ababa in doorasha xor ah la qabto? Haddaan Mustafa la keenin, miyaynu hubnaa shaqsiga kale ee la keeni lahaa iyo wuxuu la iman lahaa?  Intaa waxaa dheer, xukuumadda R.W Abiy Ahmed way ka yara duwan tahay xukuumadihii hore oo waxay la timid furfurnaan iyo isbeddel, in kastoo ilaa imminka aan la saadaalin karin halka uu geeddigu saldhigi. Haddaba mar hadduu xaalku sidaa yahay, waxaa habbon inaan lagu mashquulin siduu Mustafa ku yimid iyo cidda keentay, ee la fiiriyo laguna qiimeeyo sida uu u dhaqmo iyo waxa uu qabto ama uu bi’iyo.
Somaali Vs Itoobiyaan: Doodaha Madaxwayne Mustafa ku dhalliilaya ama ku ammaanaya halbeegga ah yaa Soomaali ah iyo yaa Itoobiyaan ah, run ahaantii waa kuwo la yaab leh, xaaladda dhabta ah iyo waaqiciga maantana daah kaga gudban yahay. Soomaalinimadu waa isir iyo dan wadaag soo jirtay ugu yaraan shan qarni. Waxaynu ka dhaxalnay awowyadeen iyo ayeeyooyinkeen. Waxay tolaysaa dhammaan Soomalida degta geeska Afrika. Difaaceedu waa waajib saaran dhammaan inta ku abtirsata isirka Soomaali. Laakiin xaqiiqdu waxay tahay difaaca isirka iyo midnimada Soomaaliyeed waligeed Soomaali uma sinnayn si wada jir ahna uguma wada gurman.  Soomalida uu maanta Mustafa Madaxwaynaha u yahay cidna ugama badsan difaaca qaranka Soomaaliyeed, qiima aad u culus oo aan la qiyaasi karin ayuuna ugu kacay. Walaalaha Soomaaliyeed ee Jabuuti, Hargaysa, Garowe, Beledwayne, Muqdiso iyo Baydhaba ka soo garbaduubayay naftood hurayaashii JWXO iyo taageerayaalkeedii ee u dhiibay gawracatadii TPLF,  ayaa tolnimadii iyo danwadaagnimadii Soomaaliyeed ka dhigay guri hoosta doofaar qotoo dawacooyin ku caweeyaan.  Waxaa ugu dambaysay garbaduubkii Muwaadin Qalbidhagax. Dabaqabashadeedu iyo dib-u-yagleelideedu waxay u baahanyihiin halgan la mida kii Daraawiishta iyo kii SYL. Musuuliyadda koobaad ee Madaxwayne Mustafa waa badbaadinta shacabka la moora duugay mus walbana loogu jiro ee Dawlad Degaanka Soomaaliyeed.
Jinsiyad (citizen) waa fikrad la timid nidaamka dawladeed (state system) ee laga dhaxlay Europe addunkana halbeeg u noqtay.  Waa waxa Soomaalida Jabuuti ka dhigay Jabuutiyaan, Soomaalida ku dhexjira xudduudaha Kenyana ka dhigay muwaadiniin Keenyaan ah. Soomaalida ku dhexjirta xudduudaha Itoobiya waxba kuma jabna inay noqdaan muwaadiniin Itoobiyaan ah isirkooduna Soomaali yahay. Laba is diidaysa ma aha. Anigu tayda haddii la maqlayo waxaan dhihi lahaa Af Axmaari iyo Afaana Oromo laduba dadku ha wada bartaan, iyadoo Af Soomaaliguna uu yahay saldhigga. Isbeddel wuu iman karaa mustaqbalka. Marka la gaaro xilli ay shacabka Dawlad Degaanka Soomaalida xoog ama xeel ay ku sugaan aaya ka tashigooda, way awoodi karaan inay yeeshaan dhalasho iyo jinsiyad isku mida oo labaduba Soomaaliya.
Dagaalka u dhexeeya Oromo iyo Somali:  Xasaradaha ka dhex oogan Oromo iyo Soomaali waa kuwo wajiyo badan leh. Muhimadda koobaad waxaa weeye in Madaxwayne Mustafa iyo xukuumaddiisu ay kala shaqeeyaan Addis Ababa iyo Adama sidii nabad iyo xal waara loogu soo dabbaali lahaa goobaha colaaduhu hareeyeen. Inta aan ogahay dadaal kuma yara Mudane Mustafa iyo Xukuumaddisa, waxna ma hagranayaan. Welise xaaladdu way cakiran tahay. Dan uguma jirto Soomaali colaad iyo dagaal joogta ah oo ka dhex oognaada iyaga iyo qowmiyadda Oromada. Oromana dan uguma jirto. Isbeddelka Itoobiya ka dhacay wuxuu Oromada siiyay fursad aanay waligood helin, qaar badan oo iyaga ka mid ahna way jilbaysan yihiin, degdeg iyo xamaasad ba’aan ayaana haya. Waxaana maanta gacanta ugu jira awooddii iyo dhaqaalihii Itoobiya. Caqli ma aha in Mustaf iyo xukuumaddisa laga filo inay xasaradaha jira bansiin ku sii shubaan meel walba iyo marwalbana la taagnaadaan qaylo-dhaan iyo dhaleecayn Oromo ku wajahan. Siyaasad bisil iyo dibloomaasiyad xeeldheer ayaa ka halisan dagaal ku salaysan xamaasad iyo laablakac. Inta wax garanaysa waxaa la habboon inay ka fikiraan sidii labadan qowmiyadood ay isu kaashan lahaayeen. Waana arrin suura gal ah haddii laga wada shaqeeyo.

Heshiiskii Dawladda Itoobiya iyo Ururka JWXO (ONLF): Inta la ogyahay Madaxwayne Mustafa kaalin wayn oo geesinnimo leh ayuu ka qaatay dhamaystirkii heshiiskii hordhaca ahaa ee dhex maray Itoobiya iyo JWXO. Waqtigii iyo duruufihii uu heshiisku ku dhacay waxay ahaayeen kuwo adag una baahan aragti fog iyo maarayn huffan. Intii JWXO ay dalka ku soo noqotayna, waxaa abuurmay si ula kac ahna looga shaqeeyay xaalado abuuri kara kala shaki iyo isku dhac keeni kara haliso badan. Xaaladaha weli way jiraan. Wixii ka dambeeyay isk hor imaadkii hubaysnaa ee dhex maray OLF iyo Xukuumada RW Abiy Ahmed-na, arrimuhu aad ayay u sii murgeen. Ilaa iyo hadda Madaxwayne Mustafa kaalin lama illobaan ah ayuu ka qaatay in aanay arrintu faraha ka bixin. Run ahaantii waa arrin mudan in Muastafa lagu bogaadiyo laguna taageero.

Gunaanad

Itoobiya guud ahaan iyo Dawlad Degaanka Soomaalida waxay ku jiraan xaalad kala guur ah. Saan saan iyo rajooyin wacan oo badan ayaa muuqda. Laakiin isbeddelka socda wali ma saldhigan, laman hubi karo say wax noqon mustaqbalka dhow iyo kan dheerba.  Waxaan qormadan ku soo gunaanadayaa:
Arag sawirka wayn:  129kii sano ee la soo dhaafay Itoobiya waxaa soo maray madax kala duwan oo ku abtirsada hiddooyin iyo hab-dhaqan siyaasadeed oo aad ukala fog. Menelik wuxuu ahaa dagaal ooge mala awaalbadan. Haile Selassie wuxuu la baxay Boqorkii Boqorrada. Mengistuu wuxuu ahaa seef la bood ku khafiifay kacaannimo iyo hantiwadaag. Meles Zenawi wuxuu ahaa dhagar qabe islawayn. Hailemariam Desalegn wuxxu ahaa dhabadhilif iyo dhaan raac. Hase yeeshee intuba waxay ka sinnaayeen hal arrin: In isirka Soomaaliga ah uu halis ky yahay jiritaanka Itoobiya. Hoggaamintooda iyo xukuumadahoodana fikirkan ayaa saldhiga u ahaa. Natiijaduna waxay noqotay dagaal, kali talisnimo, burbur iyo dib-udhac saameeyay Itoobiyaanka iyo Soomaalida labduba. Isbdeelka dhacay ee uu hormuud ka yahay R.W Abiy Ahmed waxaa ka abuurmi kartaa fursad keeni karta in fikirkaa halista ah uu is beddel ku yimaaddo. Madaxwayne Mustafa iyo xukuumaddiisu waa inayna oggolaanin in lagu qadaanqadiyo xaalado abuuri kara isku dhac Addis Ababa iyo dawlad Degaanka Soomaalida. Maanta waxaa la taagan yahay maalin daran oo u baahan aragti dheer, dulqaad iyo karti. Dagaal iyo colaad aanad diyaar u ahayn awoodna u lahayn waa qar iska tuurnimo iyo ismiidaamin.
Hassan Keynan keynanhassan@yahoo.com

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