The story unfolding in the Horn of Africa is truly unbelievable. The whole story revolves around Ethiopia’s new, young and relatively inexperienced Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed. From the moment he assumed office, something akin to The Big Bang Theory erupted in Ethiopia, something sudden, big, powerful, and majestic. Premier Ahmed’s arrival seems to have brokered a mysterious conception and miracle birth of a brand-new universe in a country not known for and spectacularly lacking in the foundational traditions and critical capabilities required to embark on and skillfully manage such monumental transformation. In just eight months, the Abiy phenomenon has convulsed the political land scape in Ethiopia, turned the geopolitical calculus of the Horn of Africa topsy-turvy, and re-set broader international relations.

At the same time, there is a fog of mystery, even unreality, surrounding crucial aspects of this great and potentially transformative endeavor. The Abiy juggernaut is real but it seems to defy conventional wisdom, rational explanation, and temporal logic. It can be heard, seen, or felt. Yet it does not lend itself easily to objective and robust scrutiny. Premier Abiy has preached and promised peace, freedom, justice and prosperity for Ethiopians, the region and beyond. He has even taken decisive actions and produced a number of remarkable results in record time. Yet, burning questions and critical unknowns abound regarding core issues underlying PM Ahmed’s campaign, its overall strategic direction, and the speed with which it moves in giant leaps.

A key element in Project Abiy is the proposed initiative to herd Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia into a closer political and economic integration. Although the scheme involves three sovereign countries, PM Ahmed has made it his favorite pet project. He is into this grand project so much so that he comes across as a man in a hurry and on messianic mission. When he returned from his short four-hour visit to Mogadishu early this year, PM Ahmed began talking about Ethiopia and Somalia uniting as one country. And following the meeting concluded in Gondar, Ethiopia, last week, the Prime Minister spoke about a promised future in which Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia would become one country with one leader. In attendance were the presidents of Eritrea and Somalia. Neither was in any rush to openly second PM Ahmed’s winged proposition.  Of course the adult in the room is President Afewerki, a veteran politician and shrewd strategist with vast and first-hand knowledge about the troubled history of and latest developments in the Horn of Africa region. He seems to keep all his strategic cards close to his heart. The excitement, energy, and optimism powering PM Ahmed’s juggernaut know no bounds. This has led to a plethora of initiatives aimed at quickly translating PM Ahmed’s imagined political dispensation into a possible and actionable governance framework. In 2002 the University of South Florida (USF) at Tampa hosted an International Conference on Prospects of a Horn of Africa Confederation: Integrating Our Common Future. Soon we may see similar events organized in many parts of the world. 

However, serious questions are being asked about this grand project. Who confederates with whom and on what terms? Three countries have been handpicked as partners and founding states in the proposed confederation. It is not clear why Djibouti has been excluded. The three countries share borders with Djibouti, and geographically it forms a strategic hub that connects all the countries. Which model of confederation will be adopted? What governance structures, executive, legislative and judiciary, will be established? How will such key and contested issues as president, capital, official language(s), currency be determined? Will the populations of the three states have a say, like referendum, in the proposed confederation? What will be the time frame of this grand project? Finally, is the proposed confederacy owned and led by the three countries or are there other actors who move the levers of power behind the scenes as partners or patrons?

Then there are questions specific to Somalia’s role, capacity and readiness. Is Somalia a full and equal partner in the three-state confederation? Somalia has just begun the long and arduous journey from a failed state to a sovereign and fully functional state. It is struggling with the implementation of the new federal system of governance. The Federal Government has juridical sovereignty over territory, population and strategic assets it cannot control and protect. Somalia’s institutions are fragile and extremely vulnerable to infiltration or complete capture by internal criminal networks and/or external predators. In addition, the Federal Government and the Federal Member States (FMS) have engaged in a protracted and savage tussle over power and resources. Questions are therefore being asked as to who in Somalia has legitimate authority and mandate to represent Somalia and negotiate on its behalf. Throwing further complication into the messy mix is that Ethiopia has been heavily involved in internal Somali affairs in ways considered unhelpful even hostile. Patriotic Somalis therefore do not see Ethiopia as a neutral observer, let alone an honest broker in all matters related to Somalia and Somalis. Many Somalis do believe that PM Abiy Ahmed is different from his Somalo-phobic predecessors, and give him credit for initiating positive reforms across the Horn. However, centuries of hostility and deep-seated mistrust cannot be healed over night. The two-decades long reign of terror unleashed by the TPLF/EPRDF regime on the Somalis in the Ogaden still provokes anger and resentment among millions in the Somali Peninsula.

The jury is out as to what will become of this grand project. Given the history of the region and the complex and messy situation prevailing in Somalia, it would be difficult to see how the proposed three-state confederacy could be successfully and sustainably implemented. It is quite possible that a secret mission to pacify and take over Somalia through massive military and administrative occupation is on the cards. But what could such risky scheme lead to is not entirely clear.  The likelihood of such intervention producing a positive outcome is zero. In fact a more plausible assessment is that it would trigger a new round of insurgency wars that could make the relentless and destructive attacks by Al-Shabab look like small skirmishes. A better and safer option for PM Abiy Ahmed would be to start with a two-state confederation involving Eritrea and Ethiopia. Somalia and hopefully Djibouti could be invited to join later.

Somalia is in the throes of a relentless and merciless assault. And Somalis have become a nation marked for liquidation. There is an epidemic of two inter-related evils perpetrated against Somalia and Somalis routinely, with impunity, and with catastrophic consequences: lethal violence and massive looting/transfer of public assets.

Somalis of all ages, sexes, backgrounds, occupations, affiliations, and outlooks have perished in their thousands. They have been massacred or maimed in their homes, schools, universities, mosques, hospitals, markets, shops, restaurants, hotels, offices, on highways, city streets, peaches, and farms. The residents of the country’s Capital, Mogadishu, have been particularly and mercilessly targeted.  The massive, incinerating hell that was let lose on ordinary Somalis going about their daily routines and businesses at the heart of their Capital and seat of their Government on 14 October 2017 still haunts and traumatizes the inhabitants of Mogadishu and all Somalis. 

The perpetrators of this crime are many and variegated; as are the motives implied or stated, the assets and capabilities deployed, the explanations and justifications peddled, and the outcomes expected. The bulk of the bloodletting is blamed, rightly, on Al-Shabab (AS). In fact, AS took responsibility for some of the deadliest attacks publicly and proudly. However, it is well known that there are myriad other forces that are present and active in the theatre of conflict. These are predominantly external actors, notably AMISOM forces, non-AMISOM Ethiopian troops, USA (AFRICOM Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa), European Union, Turkey, Qatar and UAE. These actors are either directly involved in exercising massive violence, legitimate or otherwise, across the country; or they have dogs in the violent scramble for Somalia. Some have vested interest – financial, diplomatic, political, or geopolitical – in prolonging the crisis in Somalia. For example each of the five countries contributing to AMISOM forces receives $1,028 per soldier per month. This comes to around  $20.5 million per month, or nearly $250 million yearly. The European Union has been the principal paymaster of AMISOM, providing an estimated €1.25 billion through its Africa Peace facility scheme during the past ten years. In addition, these countries receive substantial training, logistical and intelligence support for their armed forces. The US relies on Ethiopia as its strategic partner in the war on terror; and Addis Ababa seeks and, at times, demands to have Washington’s unconditional political and diplomatic support, especially in matters related to the growing international criticism over frequent violations of human rights and brutal suppression of dissent at home. Even tiny and sisterly Djibouti fights tooth and nail for its bound of flesh either through direct participation in AMISOM or by providing military base and logistical facilities to other forces operating inside Somalia.  

These actors, therefore, see no value or benefit in eliminating the threat of Al-Shabab altogether. Protracted conflicts and endless political chaos in Somalia perfectly suit internal usurpers and external predators and serve their hidden agendas and vested interests. Getting rid of AS would mean slaughtering their fat and lucrative milk-cow, Al-Shabab. 

Somalia is at once a strategic beachhead for the on-going fierce scramble for Horn of Africa and a principal target if the price is right. Poor and vulnerable Somalia is being fleeced openly and with total impunity.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, and Ethiopia are after Somalia’s strategic ports and airports, often in clandestine deals concluded in collaboration with unscrupulous senior Somali officials at both federal and state levels. The Berbera Port deal, between Somaliland and DP World, was officially unveiled in Dubai in March this year. The deal included a 19% share for Ethiopia, a matter that was kept secret for months Here. The Prime Minister of the FGS, Mr. Hassan Khaire, was in town, i.e. in Dubai on official visit, when all three stakeholders, DP World, Somaliland, and Ethiopia signed the agreement. However, when he returned to Somalia, the PM scrambled for an impromptu news conference, declaring that he had no knowledge of the deal. 

Areas in Somalia with promising oil reserves are also being targeted. Many western oil companies are involved in the hunt. Even wealthy, peace-loving and benevolent Scandinavians have not shied away from this dubious and murky enterprise. Sweden and Norway have been complicit in shedding Somali blood for oil as the bloodletting in the dusty and desolate town of Tukeraq has shown in graphic details Here. Norway has also been implicated in the maritime border dispute between Somalia and Kenya, a case that involves issues connected with oil, and is currently in the hands of the International Court of Justice (ICC). 

The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) is becoming increasingly irrelevant when it comes to representing the country and its people or defending the national interest and the safety and dignity of ordinary Somalis. The FGS has proven incapable of uniting and defending the country either through deployment of legitimate authority across the country or promoting genuine and meaningful reconciliation. In fact, in the eyes of many Somalis, the FGS has for all intent and purpose become a willing, Mogadishu-based party in the on-going brutal scramble for Somalia, operating either as a lucrative brokerage or a Trojan Horse. Many of its senior officials seem to have assumed the role of brokers hell-bent on engaging in shady deals aimed at liquidating the country’s strategic assets, or colluding with foreign predators in the service of greed and corruption, and with total impunity. Take the case of the secret deal between the Federal Ministry of Defense and the UAE-based SKA international. Federal Defense Minister, Mohamed Mursal, and Army Chief, Gen Abdiweli Jama Gorod, entered into the contract with SKA secretly and in clear violation of the national procurement rules and procedures, according to a detailed and well-researched report by the Voice of America’s Investigative Dossier aired on Voice of American Somali Service on 24 April 2018. The next day, the interim Federal Minister of Information declared the agreement null and void in an official letter Ref:WWDHD/00090/2018 dated 25/04/2018 Here. Five days later, on 30 April 2018, the former Defense Minister who signed the Agreement was elected the Speaker of Lower House of the Federal Parliament. The Senior Minister, who broke the law and committed fraud, is handsomely rewarded and crowned as the country’s chief legislator. Informed Somalis need to be perpetually on guard and keep an eye on the laws enacted by the Federal parliament during the tenure of the current speaker of the Parliament. 

Hassan Keynan